NFL fan boycott torpedoes TV Ratings

The television ratings for the 2020 NFL season are down eight percent compared to 2019.  That is a fact. 

Due to the pandemic of 2020, more people are staying inside their home this fall (and, therefore, available to watch televised NFL games) than at any time during our lifetimes.  That, too, is a fact.

It would be logical to assume that there would be a record number of television viewers for NFL football this fall, right?

Wrong.

A major news source reported this week that television ratings for the National Football League (through the week of Sunday, December 6 – Week 13) are down eight percent compared to 2019.  During the first 13 weeks of this NFL season, an average of 1.3 million FEWER fans are watching televised NFL football games this year (15.2 million viewers per week) compared to last year’s annual total of 16.5 million/week through the same number of games. 

When examined another way, the total number of television viewers for NFL football games this year have been smaller in 12 out of the first 13 weeks compared to 2019.  Ouch!

This is happening while NFL stadiums in most NFL markets are nearly empty due to local COVID restrictions keeping hometown fans away from attending weekly football games. 

Last Thursday’s NFL game between two playoff contenders pulled 24% fewer TV eyeballs compared to 2019.  Perennial Super Bowl contender New England Patriots (a favorite for East coast fans) and the Los Angeles Rams (West coast) drew a total of 13. 6 million viewers last week compared to over 18 million viewers for 2019’s match-up between Dallas and Chicago. 

The excuse train for the ratings drop from the major sports media outlets has been relentless all season.  Here are a few of the biggest whoppers which the national media has tried to use to avoid discussing the true “elephant in the room” this football season:

#1 – The heated Presidential campaign caused some viewers to choose political programming over NFL football games.   That is pure bunk.  The majority of NFL games are played on Sunday afternoons while the bulk of national political television opinion shows air on weekday evenings.   By the way, the election was held five weeks ago.  What’s the excuse now?

#2 – The nearly empty football stadiums make watching NFL games less interesting than last year.  You’ll get no argument from me!  However, I don’t know of a one single football fan that has refused to watch an NFL game involving their favorite team just because the fans aren’t allowed into the stadium.   Yet another weak argument!

#3 – The movement of long-time NFL franchises (such as the Raiders going from Oakland to Las Vegas and the Chargers from San Diego to Los Angeles) has hurt NFL viewing.  While that may have some merit in the Oakland and San Diego television markets, it’s also likely that viewership would be higher in Las Vegas and, to a lesser extent, in Los Angeles.  Again, that is a pretty weak argument to account for a nearly 10% drop in television ratings nationwide.

#4 – Legendary NFL quarterback Tom Brady’s departure from New England to Tampa Bay has hurt viewership.   I am unable to quantify that issue (yet).  There’s no doubt that fan interest for the Patriots in New England may have suffered somewhat without the franchise’s long-time quarterback, but some New England fans have likely become Tampa Bay fans with Tom Terrific on the roster.  There is no question that interest in Tampa Bay football has increased with Brady’s arrival.  I don’t see this translating to a significant change in overall viewership either way. 

#5 – Concerns about player health due to the pandemic.  This issue (while a serious one) just doesn’t compute.  If NFL fans were truly concerned about players’ health, they would have already stopped watching football due to concerns about helmet-to-helmet contact and head trauma issues (CTE).     

Despite all of the excuses being made by the sports media, there is one single reason why NFL (and NBA and Major League Baseball) television ratings have all declined. 

During 2020’s summer’s months filled with social unrest, many professional athletes became quite vocal about their unhappiness with certain issues in America.  In order to placate the players, the ownership of professional sports franchises (whose value depends on having the best athletes in the world on their teams) backed their athletes fully.  It was as much of a good business maneuver as much as it was a show of solidarity. 

Meanwhile, the players and owners have knowingly alienated a sizable percentage of long-time fans by embracing the players’ desire to bombard fans with social messaging during the season.  Many sports fans can sympathize with the overall sentiment, but, when it comes time to play ball, it’s time for the players to earn their millions on the field (or court) and to provide viewers with a pleasant distraction from life’s other issues.  Nothing more. 

Apparently, the professional sports leagues expected that their fans would “forgive and forget” this summer’s protesting and return to watching their favorite sports soon.  The NFL should now be concerned about the growing number of football fans who can and are happily living without Sunday/Monday/Thursday NFL football in their lives anymore. 

Count me as one of them.  I have yet to watch a single live NFL game on television during 2020, and my life goes on just fine without it.  Based on the ratings, a growing legion of other former fans apparently agree.   

I admit that I have listened to some professional football games via the radio or by following the scores online this season.   Though I haven’t played as much golf on Sunday afternoons as first expected, my lifelong Sunday “fix” watching NFL football has been broken. 

It has been surprisingly easy, too! The NFL and their media partners would not want you to know that. 

Yes, I do watch my normal share of college football on Saturday afternoons and evenings (I am human, you know!)   Televised college football games (though incredibly difficult to watch with so many commercial breaks) have quenched my football viewing needs in 2020.  Going for a walk with my lovely sports wife on Sunday afternoons has been another pleasant distraction from my former NFL viewing addiction.  Hey, you have to take this one weekend at a time! 

Here’s a thought.  Do you and I really matter to the NFL?  As the NFL fan boycott grows, you bet we do!  It will matter more if this NFL exodus continues through this season’s playoffs and the Super Bowl.   That’s because some really big television and media contract renewals are looming for the NFL soon. 

The NFL’s media contracts with the major networks are set to expire after the 2021 and 2022 football seasons.  The current television and social media deals bring NFL team owners a cool $5 billion (annually) for the rights to cover the weekly games for the league’s 32 franchises. 

There are potentially billions of dollars hanging in the balance as the NFL has been licking their chops hoping to (potentially) double the value of their new television rights to be bid upon by media partners such as ESPN, CBS, NBC, and Fox. 

Timing is everything.  This season’s television ratings declines have been so bad that advertisers (who buy television time assuming a minimum television audience will be watching) are being provided with so-called “make good” (bonus) spots in future games as the ads were initially seen by fewer television viewers than advertisers had been promised.  

Can this growing fan boycott really cost the NFL owners a lot of money?  The 8% drop in television viewership and ratings so far this season for the NFL’s current $5 billion deal would (theoretically) equate to a revenue loss of $400 million this year.  Somehow, though, it’s likely that the NFL and its television partners will survive on “only” $4.6 billion in TV revenues in 2020.    

Like in the stock market, the trend is your friend.  Let’s watch the weekly television ratings for the rest of December through January’s playoff games, and, of course, the February Super Bowl. Those numbers will be determine the level which the NFL’s traditional media partners may be willing to pony-up for future television rights. 

If a consensus develops that NFL viewership has peaked in recent years, it would be unwise for the networks to bid-up the future price for the TV rights if the networks may have trouble selling more expensive advertisements to their clients.  If that were to happen, though, the NFL might be forced to add additional commercial advertising time (let’s say up to 15 more minutes) to placate all parties involved.  

To their credit, the NFL has held the line in trying to keep their games to a 3-hour maximum length.  If you watch college football, you have noticed that those games are taking 3 ½ to 4 hours as the TV networks bombard viewers with 60 minutes (or more) of commercials to cover the costs of overpaying for the rights to those games.  College football television ratings have been fairly steady in 2020 compared to 2019.

If TV ratings continue to sag for the NFL, the league will be forced to extend the games to give their media partners more advertising time and a better chance to recoup the hefty price being charged to run commercials during those games.         

There is no doubt that NFL football games (even with a significant decline in ratings) are still the “kings” of weekly television viewing.  In any given week, the NFL still delivers the largest national television audience available for national advertisers desiring to peddle automobiles, beer, soft drinks, and other products. In most weeks, NFL football games reach the maximum number of potential customers with a single advertising buy.

If this NFL fan boycott continues to pick-up steam to end this football season and continues into 2021, the football league’s franchise owners (along with the players who share in the league’s annual revenues) might (finally) want to pay closer attention to their customers. 

This “little boycott” by a quietly growing number of former NFL fans may cost the league a lot more money than they had ever expected.