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One of Clint Eastwood’s trademark phrases from a Dirty Harry movie was, “Do you feel lucky?”
The four NFL second round divisional playoff games this Saturday and Sunday have given yours truly a really tough time in trying to determine the winners. Some teams haven’t participated in the playoffs very much in recent years. Sunday’s games may have snow affecting play (Yes!).
The people who follow the Las Vegas prognosticators believe the odds favor these winners (home teams in BOLD):
Saturday, January 17:
Denver (by 1.5 points) over Buffalo
Seattle (by 7 points) over San Francisco
Sunday, January 18:
New England (by 3 points) over Houston
Los Angeles Rams (by 4.5 points) over Chicago
These are some very tough games to predict this week. Let’s review each game and pick a winner!
Saturday – 3:30PM (CST) on CBS – #6 AFC seed Buffalo Bills at #1 Denver Broncos
Coach Sean Payton’s three-year turnaround of the Denver Broncos has been nothing short of miraculous. The Broncos had six consecutive losing seasons before the former New Orleans Saints coach was hired beginning with the 2023 season. Payton’s first year 8-9 record was followed-up with 10-7 in 2024 (and a first round playoff loss) and a league leading 14-3 record this season.
The Denver Broncos have done it with a reliable defense, a gritty young quarterback, and a large dose of timely good fortune. Having the second-rated NFL defense has kept Denver close in nearly every game this season. The Broncos give up only 18 points per game and allowed 30 or more points on just two occasions in 17 regular season contests.
Quarterback Bo Nix is completing his second NFL season. Having Sean Payton (a former college quarterback and professional tutor to Saints’ legend Drew Brees) as Bo Nix’ mentor has created a new dynamic duo in Denver. Nix was rated the #8 QB in the league this season with 25 touchdown passes and 11 interceptions. It is his uncanny ability to play at his best when the game is on the line which endeared him to Broncos’ fans.
Meanwhile, Buffalo came into this season as a Super Bowl favorite. The Bills have lost three straight playoff games to Kansas City in recent years. With the Chiefs’ collapse this fall, the door was left open for a seasoned playoff contender like Buffalo to make a late-season run to the league’s title game.
Reigning NFL MVP quarterback Josh Allen had another good season.
However, his stats are nearly identical to Denver’s Bo Nix (25 TD’s and 10 interceptions). Buffalo’s offense was much more productive than Denver. The Bills were #4 in scoring offense with 28.4 points per game. Compare that to Denver’s 23.6 ppg.
Buffalo’s defense, though, allowed about 22 points per game (#12 in the NFL) which is four points more than Denver’s stingy 18 ppg.
X-factor: Buffalo’s playoff experience pays off in a last second victory.
My prediction: Buffalo 31, Denver 28
Saturday – 7PM on FOX – #6 NFC seed San Francisco 49ers at #1 Seattle Seahawks
The 49ers are one of three NFC West teams still playing among the four NFC playoff competitors this weekend.
Coach Mike Shanahan’s walking wounded group of 49ers has found a way to overcome a significant number of injuries to key players all season. The latest casualty was All-Pro tight end George Kittle. He is out for the season after suffering an Achilles injury last weekend.
Quarterback Brock Purdy only played in nine regular season games due to injury. Since returning to the 49ers starting line-up on November 16, Purdy led San Francisco to seven wins in the team’s last eight games. He has been clutch coming down the stretch.
The league’s 13th rated defense has been just good enough (allowing nearly 22 points per game) to keep San Francisco in most of its games this season.
Seattle is the host team for Saturday night’s game. The Seahawks are flying high with the NFC’s #1 seed, a 14-3 regular season record, the #1 defense in the NFC, and the noisiest home stadium crowd in the NFL.
That’s the good news.
Second-year coach Mike MacDonald (not related to the pop singer with the same name) was the former defensive coordinator for the Baltimore Ravens. This 38-year old coach brought along his tough-minded defensive schemes to Seattle. The Hawks allow only 17 points per game.
Seattle’s offense has been led by journeyman quarterback Sam Darnold. He is playing for his fifth team in eight NFL seasons. Darnold passed for 25 touchdowns this fall but has given up 14 interceptions. His history of turnovers while playing in pressure football games has Seahawks fans on pins and needles already. An oblique injury has been troubling Darnold this week and may limit his mobility on Saturday night.
X-factor: Seattle must not count on Sam Darnold to rally the team from behind in this game.
My prediction: San Francisco 27, Seattle 21
Sunday – 2PM on ABC & ESPN – #5 AFC seed Houston Texans at #2 New England
Houston’s fourth quarter ambush of Pittsburgh on Monday night helped finalize the decision by Steelers’ coach Mike Tomlin to retire after 19 NFL seasons.
The Houston Texans’ defense has lifted this team to ten consecutive wins coming into this weekend (including Monday night’s 30-6 mauling of the Steelers in Pittsburgh).
Texans’ head coach DeMeco Ryans (a former linebacker for the team) has created the NFL’s #1 overall defensive unit giving up just 277 total yards per game.
The Houston offense has been inconsistent from week to week. Third-year quarterback C.J. Stroud passed for 20 touchdowns with nine interceptions but looked shaky at Pittsburgh on Monday night. Houston’s All-Pro wide receiver Nico Collins suffered a concussion in Pittsburgh and has been ruled out of this Sunday’s game at New England.
The home team New England Patriots have returned to the playoffs led by its first year coach Mike Vrabel.
The former Patriots’ All-Pro linebacker won three Super Bowl rings during his playing days in New England. As a coach, he has led the Patriots’ turnaround from 4-13 in 2024 into a 14-3 Super Bowl contender in just one season.
Second year quarterback Drake Maye has proven worthy of his first round draft selection in 2024. Passing for 31 touchdowns with just eight interceptions in the regular season was an amazing feat for a second year NFL quarterback. He spread the ball around as ten different players caught touchdown passes this season.
New England’s defense and special teams have been top notch this season as well.
X-factor: Snow (!!!) and the absence of Houston wide receiver Nico Collins
My prediction: New England 24, Houston 14
Sunday – 5:30PM on NBC – #5 NFC seed Los Angeles Rams at #2 Chicago Bears
Los Angeles was considered a Super Bowl favorite this season. Chicago Bears fans would have been thrilled just to make the NFL playoffs. These two teams will meet in frozen Soldier Field in Chicago as the sun sets with temperatures below 20 degrees and snow likely during the game.
The Rams are guided by ageless (soon-to-turn 38 years old) veteran quarterback Matthew Stafford.
He leads the NFL’s #1 offense which scores nearly 31 points per game. The Rams’ defense isn’t shabby, either. They give up 20 points on average.
Los Angeles has won several high scoring shoot-out games in the past month leading into the playoffs. The frigid weather conditions expected in Chicago on Sunday evening are not favorable to the Rams’ high scoring offense.
Chicago flipped from 5-12 one year ago to a surprising 11-6 record under rookie head coach Ben Johnson. Detroit’s former offensive coordinator brought his playbook filled with exciting plays to Chicago.
Second year quarterback Caleb Williams (27 touchdown passes and just seven interceptions) has blossomed under Coach Johnson’s tutelage.
The Bears’ defense was the most opportunistic in the NFL this season. A total of 33 turnovers (23 interceptions and 10 fumble recoveries) gave Chicago’s offense great field position and scoring opportunities.
X-factor: Frigid weather and snow will hamper both teams. Turnovers will determine the winner.
My prediction: Los Angeles Rams 28, Chicago 20