Your Guide to the NBA Playoffs

The NBA’s 82-game regular season just wasn’t enough.

Thirty teams started the season way back in October.   There were 14 teams sent home on vacation in early April.   That left 16 still playing with a hope of claiming this year’s NBA title.

About those 14 losers…

Inside the NBA” TV analysts Charles Barkley, Kenny Smith, Shaquille O’Neal, and host Ernie Johnson, Jr. have uttered their famous “One, Two, Three…Cancun!” vacation salute to the departing teams.

In case you might be wondering, the woeful Washington Wizards lost their final ten games of the season to post a 17-65 record.  They deserve the title of “Worst team in the NBA” for the 2025-2026 season.

The Putrid Pacers of Indiana sputtered into second at 19-63 to finish two games behind Washington.  A bronze medal goes to the Brooklyn “Nots” for this year’s lousy 20-62 final record.

A draft lottery will be held May 10 to determine the actual draft order for all 30 NBA teams.  The 14 non-playoff teams are the only ones with a chance to receive the #1 overall draft selection.

A trio of top losers (Washington, Indiana, and Brooklyn) receive a 14% chance of emerging from a rather complicated set of ping-pong ball drawings with the #1 overall selection in the NBA Draft on June 23.

The other teams in this year’s NBA draft lottery will be:

Utah Jazz – 22-60 – 11.5% chance of obtaining the #1 pick

Sacramento Kings – 22-60 – 11.5% chance

Memphis Grizzlies – 25-57 – 9%

New Orleans Pelicans – 26-56 – 6.8% (pick goes to Atlanta)

Dallas Mavericks – 26-56 – 6.8%

Chicago Bulls – 31-51 – 4.5%

Milwaukee Bucks – 32-50 – 3%

Golden State Warriors – 37-45 – 2%

Los Angeles Clippers – 42-40 – 1.5% (pick goes to Oklahoma City)

Miami Heat – 43-39 – 1%

Charlotte Hornets – 44-38 – .5%

The New Orleans Pelicans (who have perfected the art of losing) traded away their first round pick for 2026 one year ago in order to acquire the rights to 6’9” Maryland center Derik Queen in 2025. 

Queen started about half of the Pelicans’ games this season and averaged a pedestrian 12 points and seven rebounds per game.

Decisions like that are another reason why New Orleans has failed to reach the Conference finals in every year since the team’s inception in 2002.

There are 16 teams participating this week in a best-of-seven first round series

The NBA Western Conference produced the two teams with the best overall records in the entire league during the regular season.

Defending champion Oklahoma City won 78% of its games to finish 64-18.  The Thunder are facing #8 West seed Phoenix in Round 1.

The San Antonio Spurs finished second overall this year with a 62-20 record.  They are playing the 7th seed Portland Trailblazers in their opening round series.

Other Western Conference match-ups include #3 seed Denver Nuggets (54-28) against #6 seed Minnesota and the #4 Los Angeles Lakers (53-29) taking on the fifth-seeded Houston Rockets.

In the NBA’s Eastern Conference, the top regular season team was (are you ready?) the Detroit Pistons.  Motown’s favorite team posted a 60-22 record and is matched against East #8 seed Orlando in the opening round.

The Boston Celtics played most of the season without star forward Jayson Tatum.

He’s now back in the line-up for the playoffs.  The C’s finished second in the NBA East (56-26) and are playing #7 seed Philadelphia in Round 1.

New York’s Knicks finished third (53-29) in the NBA East.  They are matched against #6 East seed Atlanta in the first round.

The Cleveland Cavaliers came in fourth (52-30) and are playing #5 seed Toronto in another Round 1 match-up.

Is LeBron James still playing basketball?

Yes, indeed!  The 41-year old ageless freight train still plays for the Los Angeles Lakers.  He also still bowls-over defenders on his way to the basket – just like he always has.

It’s hard to believe that LeBron James (even at age 41) has never averaged less than 20 points per game over any season of his 23 in the league. The rumor mill claims that LeBron isn’t sure whether this year’s NBA playoffs will be the last of his long career.

You can be sure that NBC (which is now televising NBA playoff games this year) and ESPN/ABC will be rooting for LeBron’s Lakers to make a very deep run in this year’s playoffs.

Teams which live by the 3-point shot…

Did you know that the average NBA team attempted 40 three point field goals per game this season?  I found it a bit surprising that the majority of the top ten NBA teams taking the most 3-point shots did not qualify for the playoffs.

The Boston Celtics (4th in the league in 3-point shots) attempted an incredible 50 3-point shots during a 111-97 home playoff loss to the Philadelphia 76ers Tuesday night.  Unfortunately for Celtics fans, the home team connected on just 13 of those attempts (26%).

Boston took a total of 89 shots in the game.  When a team attempts more than 50% of its shots from long distance, a cold shooting night generally spells doom.

Here’s your three-point shooting math lesson for today.  Anything above a 33.3% success rate from long-range creates more points for a team than those which convert 50% of traditional two-point baskets.

However, attempting too many three point shots in a game may be an indicator that a team is lacking an effective inside presence (aka – a good center).

For the record, the Eastern Conference #1 seed Detroit Pistons finished 29th out of 30 teams in 3-point attempts this season with “only” 30 per game.  Boston checked-in at #4 (42 per game).  Defending champion Oklahoma City was 13th with 36 long-distance tries per game.

The NBA average for all shots attempted per game was 90.  That means that 44% (40 of 90) shots per game have been three pointers this season.

Yes, NBA teams have become quite addicted to three point shooting.

Look!  Up in the sky!  It’s a bird…it’s a plane…it’s Victor Wembanyama!

He is 7’4” tall and hard to miss – even on NBA basketball courts.

San Antonio’s Victor Wembanyama just received every first place vote for the league’s Defensive Player of the Year.  He averaged three blocked shots and 12 rebounds per game this season.

He’s no slouch on offense, either.  The Spurs’ third-year big man averaged 25 points per game.  San Antonio is the #2 Western Conference seed and a legitimate threat to stop Oklahoma City from repeating as NBA champions.

San Antonio’s cast of characters surrounding Victor Wembanyama have been improving, too.  Guards De’Aaron Fox and Stephon Castle score 35 points per game between them this year.

The San Antonio Spurs have the ingredients to surprise many during these two months of NBA playoff action.

Does any team in the NBA East have a legitimate chance to win the title?

There’s no question that the Western Conference trio of OKC, San Antonio, and the Denver Nuggets are the odd-on favorites to win the NBA championship this year.  Are there any legitimate threats coming out of the NBA’s Eastern Conference?

The #1 Eastern Conference seed Detroit Pistons won only 14 games two years ago.  This season, the Pistons won 60 to claim the top position in the East.

The Pistons play exceptional team defense and possess a deep bench if the team needs a burst of scoring or a fresh defender on the court.  Whether Detroit has the ability to withstand playoff pressure and adversity will be determined over the weeks to come.

Boston won the NBA title just two years ago.  This team still features its “Big Three” of high scoring guard Jaylen Brown, clutch shooting guard Derrick White, and All-Star forward Jason Tatum.  The remainder of the Celtics line-up can look like a group of interchangeable parts.  Boston’s playoff experience could lead them to the NBA Finals this year.

Neither Detroit nor Boston is going to be favored in a match-up vs. the eventual NBA Western Conference winner.  The Pistons or Celtics (or whichever team emerges from the NBA East) must play their best basketball of the season in the NBA Finals’ best-of-seven series just to keep it interesting.

And the winner is…

I feel fairly certain that the NBA Western Conference winner will emerge as the eventual league champion this season.  Last year’s Oklahoma City Thunder played better than everyone for the entire season.  They were not a surprise champion.

If OKC can withstand Denver and San Antonio to win the Western Conference, they will likely bring a second straight NBA championship trophy home to Oklahoma.