Podcast: Play in new window | Download
Subscribe: RSS
It’s here!
The same people who told you that Indiana was the 20th best team starting in 2025 are now suggesting that the defending college football champion Hoosiers will be the sixth best team in 2026.
Indiana went a perfect 16-0 last season. They obliterated “name” football powers like Alabama 38-3 during their stampede to the national championship.
Coach Curt Cignetti is still at Indiana. Like every other major college football program, IU went shopping to buy another group of talented transfer players using NIL bonus bucks again in 2026.
So, why did the Associated Press demote last season’s undisputed champion Indiana from the top spot when they haven’t even played a game yet?
This year’s projected top five teams were Ohio State, Oregon, Georgia, Notre Dame, and Texas.
The top five consisted of two Big Ten schools, two SEC schools, and independent Notre Dame.
Interestingly, not one SEC team received a single first place vote in this year’s 2026 preseason AP poll.
Ohio State was the top pick on 40 ballots. Oregon grabbed 14 first place votes. Indiana (the #6 preseason pick) had eight first place votes, while Miami of Florida (#7 overall pick and last year’s national runner-up) had one first place ballot.
In defense of the AP, the poll results are solely the opinions of 60+ writers and broadcasters casting their vote in this national college football beauty contest. No employees of the Associated Press are allowed to participate.
*Shameless self-promotion plug – This is yet another reason why the popular SwampSwamiSports College Football Top 25 Rankings never begins publishing its team rankings until at least four games have been played. Come back and check-out my rankings once cooler weather and clearer minds return in early October.
Preseason rankings are simply a beauty contest intended to spur interest and media hype
The NCAA Transfer Portal and the advent of NIL to pay college athletes has really affected the prediction business.
Did you know that an estimated 3,700 college football players put their name into the hat to change schools in early January?
How could anyone know how good Indiana or LSU or any other top program is going to be this fall after their rosters have changed so much from last season?
Twenty years ago, we could take a good look at which teams were returning the most top players following a good season in the previous year.
Back then, we could try to assess the incoming freshman class for possible impact players. Next, it was time to review the team’s football schedule to assess the difficulty of the upcoming opponents.
Today’s transfer portal game of musical chairs makes it quite difficult to predict which teams are going to shoot to the top of the charts by season’s end.
For example, LSU transfer quarterback Sam Leavitt from Arizona State is expected to provide a boost to the Tigers’ offensive output under new head coach Lane Kiffin.
How can anyone estimate Leavitt’s impact until he plays a few games for the Tigers to start the season?
Defending champion Indiana lost Heisman Trophy winning quarterback Fernando Mendoza to the NFL draft. Will transfer quarterback Josh Hoover from TCU be worth the reported $2 million NIL deal he signed to come to Indiana?
Here’s a surprise. The AP’s #1 team at Ohio State has a fairly tough schedule in 2026.
The Buckeyes will visit #5 Texas in Austin in Week #2. A three game stretch in mid-October finds Ohio State playing at #6 Indiana, at #14 USC, and at home for #2 Oregon. Don’t forget the regular season home finale against #16 preseason pick Michigan.
It seems likely that Ohio State is going to lose one or more of those games. That makes me suspicious of why the majority of AP voters handed the Buckeyes the #1 preseason ranking. Did they even look at the schedule first?
If you like easy schedules, check out the playoff-friendly schedule for the AP’s #4 ranked Notre Dame Fighting Irish.
The Irish won’t play a preseason top 25 team until Week #7 at #14 BYU. The other two ranked opponents (#7 Miami and #19 SMU) travel to South Bend for games in November.
Notre Dame’s schedule appears to be deliciously easy.
Alabama comes in at #13? The heat is building in Tuscaloosa
Nick Saban’s Alabama teams were nearly always ranked in the top ten during preseason. No matter how many players Saban had lost to the NFL draft, a new layer of Alabama’s stockpile of talent was ready to be unveiled during the following season.
Not anymore.
Coach Saban’s replacement is busy dealing with today’s revolving door of NCAA Transfer Portal players. More recently, he has been hitting-up Bama boosters for NIL bonus bucks in order to put a more competitive team on the field.
Yes, Alabama head coach Kalen DeBoer is feeling the heat.
His 11-4 finish in 2025 included an ugly late season loss to SEC champ Georgia and a drubbing by eventual national champion Indiana. The combined score in those two trouncings was 66-10.
Ouch!
Anything less than a spot in this year’s 12-team College Football Playoffs will be unacceptable to BamaFan.
Should this year’s team fail to deliver, Coach Kalen DeBoer and his boss will likely be swept out of Tuscaloosa in a (wait for it) crimson tide.
Alabama Athletics Director Greg Byrne inexplicably extended the contract for the increasingly unpopular head football coach Kalen DeBoer after last season’s embarrassing season-ending 38-3 loss to Indiana.
Kalen DeBoer will still receive an estimated $67.5 million if he should be fired after the coming football season.
For his part, Alabama AD Greg Byrne’s contract runs through the year 2031.
Byrne’s buyout will be peanuts compared to the bank which will be owed to the school’s football coach.
Impatient high rollers within the Bama athletics family may be getting ready to dig deep to raise funds to boot both DeBoer and Byrne should Alabama drop four or more football games again this season.
This year’s #13 preseason ranking is another indicator that the proverbial hat is already being passing around the great state of Alabama before the start of the football season.
Arch Who?
Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning didn’t ask for all of the publicity coming out of Newman high school in uptown New Orleans.
Having a legendary grandfather and two uncles who excelled at quarterback in college and the NFL is extremely hard enough to live up to. The national media then put a bullseye squarely on the back of Arch Manning four years ago upon his signing to play college football at the University of Texas.
Arch Manning sat on the bench for most of his first two years at Texas behind Quinn Ewers.
Manning was finally named the starter in Austin to begin the 2025 season. A media-fueled “Arch Manning for Heisman” campaign prior to Week #1 turned into a massive flop.
Texas got off to a rocky start. Manning eventually found his confidence later in the year to end 2025 on a positive note. Texas finished 9-3. Their win total included two overtime squeakers in road games at Kentucky and at Mississippi State.
Texas was left out of the college football playoffs.
Arch Manning now has a chance to deliver a championship season to the Longhorn faithful this fall.
The preseason #5-ranked Texas Longhorns are favored to finish in the top two of the SEC along with #3 Georgia.
Texas has the talent to have a terrific season. However, Texas has been loaded with talent for years in Austin.
It’s time to Arch Manning, Coach Steve Sarkesian, and this year’s squad of Texas Longhorns to step-up and prove it to everyone on the field this fall.
Can coach Curt Cignetti help bring a second straight title back home to Indiana?
The attention to detail shown by Indiana’s national championship squad last year was reminiscent of some of former Alabama coach Nick Saban’s finest teams.
Then again, Indiana head coach Curt Cignetti was once on Saban’s staff at Alabama. IU’s coach took very good notes while observing the intense legendary football coach in action – both on and off the field.
Indiana’s Heisman Trophy quarterback (Fernando Mendoza) and his favorite receiver (Omar Cooper, Jr.) are gone. Both were selected early in the first round of this spring’s NFL draft. They will be replaced by talented incoming transfers at Indiana.
Coach Cignetti and his assistant coaches pay incredible attention to every detail on offense, defense, and special teams. Last year’s 16-0 Hoosiers team played like a well-oiled machine in winning the national championship.
In tough games when the talent on the field appears to be nearly equal, Indiana proved an old adage about “The 5 P’s” was still valid.
Prior preparation prevents poor performance.
Bet against IU this year if you wish. Not me.