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Stay close to your phone on Saturday. Due to a growing shortage of so-called “quality” college football draft picks available this year, an NFL team just might be “Dialing for Dollars” trying to complete their traditional seven rounds of draft selections.
You just never know…
The advent of college football’s recent pot-of-gold called “Name, Image, and Likeness” (NIL) has caused a significant number of potential NFL draft choices to reconsider leaving college for the NFL. That’s right! Some players may get paid more to stick around in school for another year.
Decisions, decisions!
Today’s fictitious example concerns All-Conference offensive guard Louie O’Lineman. He just completed Year #4 at a major college football program. Due to COVID-19, the current NCAA rules allow Louie a fifth year of college eligibility this fall. He also has the option to turn professional and enter the NFL draft (which begins Thursday in Detroit with Round 1 and continues into Saturday).
The very sharp 3.4 GPA offensive guard wisely checks around to learn that NFL scouts have rated his skills as no higher than a fourth round selection in this week’s NFL draft. Based on the 2023 NFL rookie class, the average fourth round pick received a contract valued at about $1.2 million/year over four seasons. Of course, that player is subject to being cut from the team before the start of any season, too. The player gets to keep his relatively small signing bonus.
Meanwhile, Louie O’Lineman’s current college football team believes that they are going to make a serious run at the national title this fall. Louie has dreamed of playing for a national championship for his entire career. The university’s relatively new but financially growing NIL “collective” has accumulated millions in donations from its generous athletic supporters. The school’s NIL collective (which isn’t supposed to collaborate with the coaching staff) is redistributing money to keep important athletes in the program.
The college NIL collective offered Louie O’Lineman a $1.5 million offer to stay in school one more year and play college football again this fall.
Is that really happening?
Indeed it is!
Many NFL teams are finding that college underclassmen aren’t as likely to forego their final year of college eligibility in this week’s 2024 NFL Draft.
Over the past decade, about 200 players will opt out of college to start earning money in the NFL after their third year in school. This year, only about 100 underclassmen will be part of the NFL draft. That’s because the majority of those college football players will remain in school another year and collect a similar or larger amount of loot courtesy of these new college NIL collectives.
The NFL’s annual draft has 32 teams making seven rounds of selections. That’s a total of 224 players who will hear their name called by the NFL.
With 100 fewer underclassmen being available this year, that means 42% fewer college football players are part of the NFL’s potential talent pool. As opposed to previous years, the final three rounds of the NFL draft will require deeper scouting and a lot more risk-taking.
For the college football players opting to stay in school, there are risks, too. A career-ending injury is always a possibility. Also, advancing age (that’s right) can make the same player less attractive to an NFL scout at this time next year.
All things equal, the NFL generally prefers to draft a healthy 21-year old college junior than taking a 23-year old fifth year senior. That’s because the average NFL career lasts just 3.3 years. Punters and kickers are the longest-tenured at nearly five years in the league, while running backs (the most frequently injured players) stick around about half of that time at 2.57 years.
Football is a collision sport
The lengthy 23-year NFL career of Tom Brady is a true statistical outlier. Serious injuries and annual competition for positions contribute to making the NFL a revolving door business.
Rookies in the National Football League generally sign a four year contract. With an NFL football player’s average career lasting just 3.3 seasons, more than half of this week’s draft picks may be searching for a new career by the end of their first professional football contract.
Even if a player scores a second or third long-term contract over a lengthy career, the total value of those contracts (which may include a healthy portion of compensation as guaranteed pay) will be prorated over the number of seasons which will be played. .
Time to spin that quarterback roulette wheel early in the first round of the draft
Yet again in 2024, several NFL teams are expected to select a college quarterback with several of the opening picks in the first round.
You will hear the names of USC’s Caleb Williams, LSU’s Heisman Trophy winner Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye of North Carolina, and J.J. McCarthy of Michigan called before the midway point of Round #1 on Thursday. You might even hear University of Washington signal caller Michael Penix, Jr. and Oregon quarterback Bo Nix before the end of Thursday night’s first round.
Selecting a quarterback early in the first round generally hasn’t worked out very well
Recent history says that most of those quarterbacks will not make a long-term impact for the teams which initially drafted them.
Last year, three of the first four NFL draft selections were college quarterbacks. Only one of the trio (Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud – the #2 overall pick by the Houston Texans) had a significant impact on his team’s success. Stroud became the NFL’s Rookie-of-the-Year as Houston improved on the field and advanced into the first round of the playoffs.
The Carolina Panthers made former Alabama quarterback, Bryce Young, the overall top pick. Young was chased all over the field in 2023 as his team finished the year with a woeful 2-15 record. The fourth overall selection last year was former Florida Gators’ QB Anthony Richardson. The Indianapolis Colts’ top pick seriously injured his throwing shoulder in one of the first games of 2023 and was out for the remainder of the season.
Two years ago in 2022, only one quarterback (Kenny Pickett of the University of Pittsburgh) was taken in the first round. With the 20th overall selection, the hometown Pittsburgh Steelers made Pickett their starting quarterback as a rookie. After just two seasons in Steel City, Pickett was recently traded to Philadelphia upon the signing of veteran quarterback Russell Wilson by the Steelers.
Three years ago, the 2021 NFL draft saw three quarterbacks taken with the first, second, and third picks in Round 1. Jacksonville’s Trevor Lawrence went #1 followed by Zach Wilson to the New York Jets and Trey Lance to San Francisco. Two more quarterbacks were taken in the first round, too. Chicago selected Justin Fields with pick #11 while Mac Jones was taken by New England as the 15th overall draft choice.
Of 2021’s class of five first round selections, only Trevor Lawrence remains with the same team which drafted him only two years ago.
This week, Denver obtained 2021’s #2 overall pick Zach Wilson in return for Denver’s 6th round selection this year.
In late 2023, the Dallas Cowboys received #3 Trey Lance for a 4th round selection.
In March, the Pittsburgh Steelers grabbed #11 Justin Fields from the Bears in return for a lowly 6th round selection.
Also in March, Mac Jones (#15 overall) was dealt to Jacksonville to join Trevor Lawrence in return for (you guessed it) a 6th round pick.
Q: Why do teams keep doing it? A: Patrick Mahomes
Some teams have failed to make the playoffs for several years. The post-season drought is reaching the panic phase for the New York Jets (2010), Denver Broncos (2015), Atlanta Falcons (2017), and Carolina Panthers (2017). Team ownership and management must find a way to sell “hope” to satisfy season ticket buyers.
The quarterback position is the most visible to fans and easiest to market. Despite the fact that a generational talent at offensive line might be the smarter long-term pick, the bottom feeder teams in the NFL will generally pass in favor of a selecting a well-known college quarterback.
In 2017, Patrick Mahomes from Texas Tech was selected by Kansas City with the 10th pick in the first round. He has led Kansas City to three Super Bowl wins and has won two NFL MVP awards.
However, Mitch Trubisky from the University of North Carolina was selected with the second overall selection in that same round by the Chicago Bears. Trubisky lasted just four years in Chicago and has now played for Buffalo, Pittsburgh, and will return to Buffalo once again this year.
Guess which team will have the #1 overall selection on Thursday night? Yes, it’s the Chicago Bears. Seven years later, da’ Bears are expected to select yet another college quarterback with the first pick.
Three years from now, a few of the smarter NFL teams will dangle a bargain basement 6th round draft pick to take one or more of the 2024 parade of first round quarterbacks.
Step right up! The NFL’s first-round quarterback roulette “Wheel-of-Misfortune” game begins Thursday night at 7PM CDT on ESPN.