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Beginning Thursday, Kansas City returns to the NFL spotlight. This time, the primary story will not be about Patrick Mahomes and the defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs.
The NFL draft is coming to KC this week for three straight days beginning with Thursday night’s slower-than-molasses Round 1. ABC, ESPN, and the NFL Network will provide television coverage beginning at 6PM Central time for another four and one half hours.
NFL teams will have (and, generally, take) ten minutes to make their first round selection as the first 32 college football players are chosen and announced. On Friday night, it’s Rounds 2 and 3 starting at 6 PM with up to seven minutes between picks. Saturday’s finale features rounds 4, 5, 6, and 7 (with five minutes between selections) starting at 11 AM and mercifully ending somewhere around 5PM.
The NFL draft will take place around Kansas City’s historic Union Station.
The incredible architecture of this railroad hub of the Midwest (still featuring Amtrak service) has been transformed into a regional tourist mecca. Kansas City’s Union Station is part of the Chicago- to-Los Angeles route while another train travels intrastate to St. Louis and back. Union Station has been modified to feature a top notch science center, planetarium, large movie theater and assorted retail shops.
In a very good PR move, the NFL is now holding its annual draft at a different city each year. For decades, the draft was always held in New York City. Even Detroit (which has never even played in a Super Bowl) will get to host the NFL draft next year in 2024.
As you make that critical decision as to how much of this event you plan to watch, let’s take a hard look at some of the facts surrounding the NFL draft:
HOW OFTEN DOES THE OVERALL #1 DRAFT PICK ACTUALLY TAKE HIS TEAM TO A SUPER BOWL TROPHY?
First, the bad news. During the Super Bowl era beginning in 1967, there has not been one team with the overall #1 pick which has advanced into the NFL’s top game in the very next season. Sorry, Carolina Panthers fans! You might want to hold-off on buying any 2024 Super Bowl tickets.
During the 57 years of the NFL’s Super Bowl era, there have been 12 of the #1 overall NFL draft picks who have led the team which initially drafted them to a Super Bowl victory:
1967 – Bubba Smith (Baltimore Colts)
1970 – Terry Bradshaw (Pittsburgh Steelers)
1971 – Jim Plunkett (Oakland Raiders)
1974 – Ed “Too Tall” Jones (Dallas Cowboys)
1983 – John Elway (Denver Broncos)
1989 – Troy Aikman (Dallas Cowboys)
1991 – Russell Maryland (Dallas Cowboys)
1993 – Drew Bledsoe (New England)
1997 – Orlando Pace (St. Louis Rams)
1998 – Peyton Manning (Indianapolis Colts)
2004 – Eli Manning (New York Giants)
2013 – Erik Fisher (Kansas City Chiefs)
In addition, five other overall #1 draft choices would win a Super Bowl ring with a different team than the one which drafted him. They are:
1973 – John Matuszak (Selected by Houston – won SB with Oakland)
1981 – George Rogers (Selected by New Orleans – won SB with Washington)
1996 – Keyshawn Johnson (Selected by NY Jets – won SB with Tampa Bay)
2002 – David Carr (Selected by Houston – won SB with NY Giants)
2009 – Mathew Stafford (Selected by Detroit – won SB with LA Rams)
Statistically speaking, there is a surprisingly good chance (21% or 12 out of 57) that the Carolina Panthers may find actually select a player which will help lead the team to a Super Bowl victory during some not-too-distant year.
It has now been ten years since the last #1 overall selection (2013 – Erik Fisher in Kansas City) would be drafted and play for a Super Bowl champion team. Statistically speaking, the odds indicate that we are overdue. Will Carolina get lucky?
WHO SHOULD BE THE FIRST PLAYER DRAFTED THIS YEAR?
I just finished reading a great book written by former college and NFL coach Jimmy Johnson. He coached football teams to national championships in college (Miami Hurricanes) and in the professional ranks with the NFL Dallas Cowboys. The book is a terrific read for any football fan.
Coach Johnson’s first rule on evaluating a player had to do with his intelligence. That doesn’t necessarily mean grades in the classroom or testing at NFL combines. He was looking for players who displayed a sincere willingness to listen and accept instruction from the coaching staff. Jimmy Johnson understood that his players needed to be able to make changes from week to week to keep opponents off guard.
In an earlier post, I discussed that there will be a large number of college quarterbacks who will be selected very early in the first round of Thursday night’s NFL draft.
A long-time friend of mine and I had a great conversation last week about this year’s draft class. When looking at this year’s college football players to be drafted in the first round, how many of these players can you already visualize making the NFL Hall-of-Fame some day? When evaluating the top names of this 2023 NFL draft class, some have clearly shown themselves to be the best in their specialty.
For quarterbacks, did you think that Kentucky’s Will Levis was the best quarterback in college football for the past few years? No, he wasn’t. Not even close. Yet, some people believe that he might be selected by Carolina with the first pick because of his ideal size and terrific arm strength. He looks the part of today’s NFL quarterback.
The same can be said for Ohio State quarterback C. J. Stroud. He was very good in college but was he, by far, the best college quarterback for the past two years? Nope.
Let’s add Florida quarterback Anthony Richardson into this discussion. Last year’s 6-7 record posted by the Gators speaks volumes as to how little difference that Richardson actually made for his team last season.
There is just one quarterback available on Thursday night who was clearly at the top of the heap for the past two years.
Alabama’s Bryce Young was the field general who rallied the Crimson Tide offense in countless games. However, his 5’10” and 190 pound weight (being generous on both counts) has many professional teams concerned to make him their top pick.
Bryce Young is very smart and was, by far, the most accurate passer of the aforementioned college quarterbacks who are likely to be first round draft picks. Former New Orleans Saints quarterback Drew Brees had a Hall-of-Fame career and was just about the same size as Bryce Young.
In my best Roger Goodell voice, “With the first pick of the 2023 NFL Draft, the Carolina Panthers select Bryce Young, quarterback, University of Alabama.”
WHO ELSE DOES SWAMPSWAMI LIKE THIS YEAR?
I want to consider any player who was OBVIOUSLY the best at his position in college football last season and shown improvement while in college. Here are a couple of other “standout” names I like:
Running back – Bijan Robinson (Texas)
Offensive line – Peter Skoronski (Northwestern)
That’s it. Just three.
I am not sold on the impact which Georgia defensive lineman Jalen Carter and Alabama linebacker Will Anderson, Jr. will have in the NFL. They played alongside of some extremely talented college players on their SEC teams. The NFL will require them to take another step up. I wonder if they may have “peaked” in college?
WHAT AM I LOOKING FORWARD TO WATCHING DURING THE DRAFT?
In general, the good teams will make good decisions. The bad teams will continue to make bad ones.
Good teams – Watch closely as Baltimore and San Francisco may dangle their current quarterbacks to the NFL market as trade bait. Expect the Pittsburgh Steelers and New England Patriots to quietly stockpile more undervalued players who have proven to be coachable talents. And what will the Cincinnati Bengals do to keep their team together to stay near the top?
Bad teams – The lowly Houston Texans need to make a lot of good moves in this draft to begin turning around their sinking ship. I wouldn’t count on it with most of their current executive management group still in H-town. Speaking of bad teams, will the New York Jets, Cleveland Browns, and Arizona Cardinals find a few receivers to catch footballs thrown by their very expensive quarterbacks?
Interesting teams – The Dallas Cowboys have done well in the off-season deal making. Let’s see if Dallas is able to grab a quality tight end or running back to solidify the offense.
The New Orleans Saints just spent a lot of money on Derek Carr at quarterback. I wish I had more confidence in Dennis Allen as the team’s head coach. With the current talent, the Saints could be really good this year. However, I said the same thing last year. Coaching matters.
Speaking of coaches, keep an eye on former Saints coach Sean Payton and his Denver Broncos. Denver has just five picks in the draft. The Broncos won’t be heard from until Round 3. They have two third round picks. Will Coach Payton make a deal to move up and get a better pick? Don’t bet against him.
On Thursday night, it is time for the annual football soap opera called the NFL Draft from Kansas City. Get your popcorn ready!