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It keeps happening every spring.
The NFL’s worst teams from the previous year are rewarded with the top picks in the next NFL player draft. The theory is that these teams will be able to carefully evaluate and select the best available college football players and start to rebuild a winning franchise over a few years.
Though a few of these first round draft choices bring a revival of fortunes, the majority of the NFL’s bottom feeders continue to find a way to make draft mistakes when evaluating and selecting the top talent in the first round of the draft.
On the plus side, the Cincinnati Bengals went 2-14 just two years ago. They had the first pick in 2020’s draft and selected quarterback Joe Burrow from national champion LSU with the #1 overall choice. Just two seasons later, Joey B and his talented trio of young pass receivers have led the Bengals from the bottom to the top of the ACF North standings with two weeks to go in this season. Cincy is just one win away from playing in their first playoff game in six seasons.
Though quarterback Joe Burrow has been the most visible reason for the team’s turnaround, the Bengals wisely selected additional difference makers to their team during the later rounds of the NFL draft over the past few years. The young players are now contributing to Cincinnati’s pro football revival.
The NFL brass can point to Cincinnati’s turnaround and say, “See, we told you so!”
Just one year later, the worst teams in the NFL flocked to select five first round quarterbacks in hopes that those highly touted players would become the next Joe Burrow. Let’s take a look at the Class of 2021’s first round quarterbacks:
Trevor Lawrence – Selected #1 overall by Jacksonville. The former national championship quarterback from Clemson had been touted as the top pick for years. He has all of the physical attributes (height, weight, arm strength, footwork, and ability to scramble) that professional football teams seem to covet. Trevor also has the prettiest hair of the first round QB’s, too! Lawrence has underwhelmed in his rookie year in Jacksonville by throwing for 14 interceptions against just nine touchdowns as his team is just 2-13 with two games to go.
Another future Hall-of-Famer struggled mightily during his first professional year as the #1 overall pick. Payton Manning’s rookie season with the Indianapolis Colts was ugly. The team went 3-13 as Manning tossed 26 touchdowns but also threw 28 interceptions. It’s too early to give up on Trevor Lawrence, but the expectations will remain high after being the first overall pick.
Trevor Lawrence was expected to be this season’s version of Joe Burrow. That didn’t happen. Let’s give him a “D+”.
Zach Wilson – Selected with the #2 overall pick by the New York Jets. Wilson’s college days at Brigham Young were simply amazing. In his final year, he passed for nearly 4,000 yards with 33 touchdowns and only three interceptions. A tough runner, Wilson added another ten touchdowns on the ground for the Cougars in his final year at BYU. In his first year with the New York Jets, Wilson is struggling just like Trevor Lawrence. He has tossed just seven touchdowns against 11 interceptions for a Jets team which is currently 4-11 with two games left. If the Jets were hoping for the next Joe Burrow, it is looking grim. Let’s give Zach Wilson a “D”.
Trey Lance – Selected #3 overall by the San Francisco 49ers, Lance has seen the least amount of time on the field this year among the five first round quarterbacks taken in the 2021 NFL draft. Jimmy Garoppolo remains the starting quarterback in San Francisco as Lance underwhelmed during a couple of opportunities early in the season. Trey Lance played college football at North Dakota State and was the starting quarterback for just his final year. It was quite a year, though, as he passed for 28 touchdowns without a single interception in 2019. He added an impressive 14 touchdowns via the run as he also rushed for 1,100 yards. I think it’s too early to make a call on Trey Lance, but I think the 49ers may have made a mistake. C-.
Justin Fields – After transferring from Georgia and playing only two years for Ohio State, the Chicago Bears took Fields with the 11th overall selection in last season’s first round. Fields’ successful years at Ohio State saw him pass for 67 touchdowns and just nine interceptions. Moving into the NFL, though, Fields (like the other rookie quarterbacks selected before him) has struggled. With two games remaining this season, he has already thrown more interceptions (10) than he did in college. Add just seven touchdown passes and the Bears’ record of 5-10, Fields’ rookie season has been less than stellar. The Bears were 8-8 last year. Let’s give Justin a “C-“.
Mac Jones – The final first round quarterback taken in the 2021 NFL draft, Alabama’s Mac Jones was selected at #15 by the New England Patriots. Jones had played for college football’s most successful (and toughest) coach in Nick Saban, and now he would be playing for the NFL’s toughest coach in Bill Belichick. Unlike the other first round picks, Jones had lower expectations of how much would be asked of him in his rookie season in New England. The Patriots finished 7-9 a year ago. Mac Jones won the starting quarterback job this preseason and now has led the Patriots to a 9-6 record with two games to go with an AFC playoff spot possible. Jones has been efficient, unspectacular, but quite effective. He has thrown for 18 touchdowns and 12 interceptions in his rookie campaign. I’ll give Jones a solid “B” for his first year in the NFL.
This story isn’t meant as a slight to any of the five quarterbacks taken early in the 2021 NFL draft. If you put Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson, Trey Lance, or Justin Fields into the same quarterback spot in New England, it’s hard to know how well they might have performed this year under their legendary coach.
The real question is why the bottom NFL franchises continue to believe it is more important to grab a quarterback with their early first round selections when there are 21 other starting positions which may have a bigger deficiency to fill than the quarterback spot. If the offensive line isn’t able to give the quarterback much time to throw, then the quarterback spends much of his time running away from would-be tacklers and throwing poor passes. If the defense can’t hold opponents under 30 points per game, then maybe a team would be smarter to pick the best defensive player on the board.
No one would question Jacksonville’s selection of Trevor Lawrence with the top overall pick this season as the Jaguars had so many holes and Lawrence was rated as a generational talent at quarterback.
After the Jags took Lawrence with the #1 selection, you have to wonder what the Jets, 49ers, and Bears were thinking by putting so much value on taking a top quarterback with their first pick. Much of the blame can be placed on the media for convincing fans that a quarterback will solve the team’s problems.
The perennial losers in the NFL (like in any other sport) tend to make poor decisions during the draft and in free agency, coaching, and front office decisions. The perennial winners rarely make such mistakes.
As much as I rarely give credit to the Dallas Cowboys, the team utilized its first round draft picks in 2011, 2013, and 2014 to select offensive linemen. With a solid offensive line, the Cowboys were able to develop a fourth round quarterback (Dak Prescott) into a top level NFL quarterback.
Though many people remember that Michigan quarterback Tom Brady wasn’t taken until the sixth round of the NFL draft, there have been many other Super Bowl winners who weren’t taken in the first round. Drew Brees (2nd round), Brett Favre (2nd round), Joe Montana (3rd round), Russell Wilson (3rd round), Roger Staubach (10th round), Bart Starr (17th round), and undrafted Kurt Warner are wearing one or more Super Bowl rings.
Though many pro football analysts might say (today, that is) that the number of first round “sure thing” college quarterbacks available in this spring’s NFL draft will not be as plentiful as last year, don’t be surprised to hear a few of the perennially desperate NFL teams call a few of those quarterbacks’ names early in the first round. The media-fueled drum beats will begin again soon to hype a few of these quarterbacks heading in to the 2022 NFL draft.
Some things just never change.