Brian Kelly to LSU makes Business Sense

In my favorite Christmas movie, “Miracle on 34th Street”, a local judge facing re-election must decide whether or not a kindly gentleman named Kris Kringle is actually the real Santa Claus.  Without giving away the end (in case you haven’t seen it), the judge is provided with a last-minute Christmas miracle of his own to justify a favorable ruling.

In the back of the courtroom, the judge’s campaign manager (played perfectly by William Frawley) nods his head in agreement knowing that his candidate has ruled wisely.

Upon hearing the news that LSU will hire football coach Brian Kelly away from Notre Dame to become the Tigers’ new head man, I am mentally picturing LSU Athletics Director Scott Woodward in the William Frawley role today.  He must be very pleased with this decision, too.

Before we get to the hiring issues of Brian Kelly coming to LSU, it is important to take a look at the exit of former coach Ed Orgeron, too.

Football fans never doubted that Ed Orgeron was a dedicated LSU man at heart.  You can’t fake it by simply growling “Geaux Tigers” in his signature thick Cajun accent at the end of every interview for years.  That is what endeared him so much to the Tiger faithful.

This is the same man who guided LSU to an incredible 15-0 perfect season in 2019 (less than two years ago).  After such a rousing season, LSU rewarded Coach O with a new contract.

Ed Orgeron was literally King of Louisiana at that point.

If he could have maintained a high level of success (winning nine or ten games a year and keeping the Tigers a national contender), he could have retired into the bayous of South Louisiana at any time he liked.

That’s when the wheels fell off.  Ed Orgeron (the man) simply isn’t the same kind of obsessed football coach that Nick Saban is.  He loves life outside of football (perhaps too much) and may not have focused on his job enough at times.  The fact that his LSU teams over the past two years have finished with records of 5-5 and 6-6 (only after winning the final two games in both seasons) confirms that Coach Orgeron wasn’t the right man to keep the winning going in Baton Rouge.

It was fun while it lasted.

When new Athletics Director Scott Woodward took the reins, Ed Orgeron’s time at LSU was hanging by a thread.  Woodward (a graduate of LSU) had a reputation at Texas A&M for making splashy hires (Jimbo Fisher in football and Buzz Williams in men’s basketball).

Since football at LSU represents about $80 million per year in revenue to the school and funds all other sports other than baseball and men’s basketball, ticket sales to football games was going to help support or sink Ed Orgeron as the football coach.

In 2021, LSU did not have one sellout game (102,321) in their seven home games.

The final game against Texas A&M (a spectacular win for LSU in the final minute) featured nearly 11,000 unsold seats.  If you assume an average LSU SEC home game ticket price of $150, that’s a loss of $1.65 million in unsold tickets alone.  The actual attendance for the Texas A&M game was much smaller (let’s say 75,000-ish).   If you factor an average of $20 per person in unsold concessions, merchandise, and parking for that game, the “other” revenue loss would be in excess of $540,000.

Because LSU’s final home game against a strong Texas A&M should have been a sell-out, the school theoretically lost over $2.1 million in potential revenue by having a struggling team in 2021.

Scott Woodward’s job at LSU is to keep the school’s athletics facilities filled with happy fans spending lots of money.

Despite a 51-20 record as LSU’s head coach, the recent hemorrhage of cash flow meant that Coach O had to geaux.

Personally, I think Ed Orgeron became another victim of the management theory called the “Peter Principle”.  That is when someone is promoted to one level of management higher than the person’s comfort level.  He had been a fine assistant coach and the most loyal cheerleader type of coach for the team.

Unfortunately, being the head coach requires other job skills which may not have been Coach O’s cup of tea.

This brings us to the hiring of Brian Kelly from Notre Dame to replace Ed Orgeron at LSU.

Though some LSU fans will lament that the team is bringing a “Yankee” to Baton Rouge, there was another guy named Nick Saban who came to coach the team from Michigan State.  He helped LSU to their second national championship in 2003.  His successor, Les Miles, had most recently coached Oklahoma State prior to coming to LSU but was a “Michigan man” at heart after growing up and playing football up north.   Despite Miles’ off-the-field issues, his teams posted a gaudy 113-34 record and the school’s third national championship in 2007.

Brian Kelly has been quite successful at his last two head coaching jobs.  He led Cincinnati to national prominence with an undefeated 12-0 regular season in 2009 prior to becoming the head coach at Notre Dame.  As coach of the Irish for the past twelve seasons, Kelly’s teams have finished with ten or more wins in five of the last six seasons to keep Notre Dame in the national title conversation every year.

LSU fans still lament that Nick Saban abandoned their team by leaving to coach the NFL Miami Dolphins in 2005 and then returning to college football with LSU rival Alabama just two years later.

Tiger fans loved Ed Orgeron’s fiery Louisiana attitude and hoped that he would be able to find the magic again after winning the 2019 national championship.  Alas, it just wasn’t meant to be.

Brian Kelly is now sixty years old.  As I can attest, your skin does, indeed, get thinner as the years pass, and winter makes you feel even colder.  Since it gets quite chilly in northern Indiana in the wintertime, Brian Kelly and his wife may have longed to have one more challenge (in a warmer climate) to finish out his coaching career.  He is looking forward to coming to Louisiana:

“I could not be more excited to join a program with the commitment to excellence, rich traditions, and unrivaled pride and passion of LSU Football,” Kelly said. “I am fully committed to recruiting, developing, and graduating elite student-athletes, winning championships, and working together with our administration to make Louisiana proud. Our potential is unlimited, and I cannot wait to call Baton Rouge home.”

For Brian Kelly, the opportunity to turn around LSU’s football program and win his first national championship was appealing.  Having a ten year contract worth $95 million didn’t hurt, either.

For LSU AD Scott Woodward, he opened his checkbook to hire a nationally respected coach who wants winners on the field and in the classroom, too.

“Most importantly, Coach Kelly’s players and programs exemplify excellence in all aspects of the student-athlete experience – in competition, in the classroom, and throughout the community – and he shares our values and vision for elevating our university and our state. We’re thrilled to welcome him and his family to Baton Rouge, and we are excited to work with him as we add to the championship legacy of LSU Football.”

As LSU fans and the national media blathered on about Jimbo Fisher of Texas A&M, Oklahoma’s Lincoln Riley (now at USC), Ole Miss coach Lane Kiffin, Louisiana-Lafayette’s Billy Napier (now at Florida), and Oregon’s Mario Cristobal (my personal favorite), I never heard a peep about Brian Kelly at Notre Dame.

Brian Kelly isn’t a splashy coach who feeds the media with great sound bites.  Then again, neither is Nick Saban.

At first glance, this seems to be a very solid hire for LSU.

If Brian Kelly can fill 102,321 seats in Tiger Stadium by winning more football games starting next season, LSU fans will warm up to Brian Kelly as much as he will soon warm-up to the heat and humidity of Baton Rouge!