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Mrs. SwampSwami and I spent last week on a lovely visit to the Gulf Shores, Alabama area.
Travel tip – Don’t miss the Naval Air Museum in nearby Pensacola, Florida.
We spent a half day looking at all sorts of aircraft and reading stories about the people who flew them. Check to see when the Blue Angels are practicing, too. It’s a great place to bring the kids and/or grand kids!
While along the Gulf Coast, I had plenty of chances to listen to sports shows spouting opinions about this week’s March Madness basketball tournaments.
Full disclosure: I played basketball from elementary school (check out #4 below!) through high school and countless adult leagues through my middle 30’s.
However, I have never correctly predicted the winner of one men’s March Madness college basketball tournament.
That’s hard to believe, but it’s true.
I’ve had decades of doomed picks.
Like many, I do enjoy using my “Wile E. Coyote” analytical skills to determine a few “surprise” picks to make it deep into the tournament each year.
Just like my cartoon friend Wile E. Coyote, those same March Madness picks usually go over the cliff and hit the bottom of the canyon every season.
But this year is going to be different!
Breaking a decades long tradition won’t be easy. However, the top teams in this year’s men’s and women’s March Madness college basketball fields have been fairly consistent all season long.
On the men’s side, the AP’s Preseason Top 10 included Kansas at #1 followed by Alabama, Connecticut, Houston, Iowa State, Gonzaga, Duke, Baylor, North Carolina, and Arizona.
Auburn was at #11 followed by Tennessee, Texas A&M, Purdue, Creighton, and #16 Arkansas.
All of those first 16 preseason selections qualified for this week’s NCAA men’s tournament. The #17 preseason team, the Indiana Hoosiers, finished a competitive 19-13 but were the first AP preseason Top 25 men’s team to be omitted from the men’s March Madness field.
Rounding out the preseason top 25 were #18 Marquette followed by Texas, Cincinnati, Florida, UCLA, Kentucky, Ole Miss, and Rutgers.
Like Indiana, preseason #20 Cincinnati and #25 Rutgers also failed to make the March Madness field.
The preseason #4 Houston holds a #1 seed (Midwest), preseason #11 Auburn will be #1 in the South, preseason #7 Duke tops in the East, and preseason #21 Florida becomes the West Region’s #1 seed.
Did you know that the AP preseason women’s basketball teams went a perfect 25 for 25 in being selected for March Madness?
On the women’s side of the ledger, every one of the the AP Preseason Top 25 rankings was selected for the March Madness tournament field.
Preseason #1 South Carolina led the way followed by Connecticut, Southern Cal, Texas, UCLA, Notre Dame, LSU, Iowa State, NC State, and Oklahoma in the top ten.
Duke was ranked a preseason #11 followed by Baylor, Kansas State, Ohio State, North Carolina, West Virginia, Louisville, Maryland, and #19 Florida State. Ole Miss was the preseason #20 team with Creighton, Kentucky, Nebraska, Alabama, and Indiana rounding out the top 25.
Incredibly, four of the top five preseason women’s college basketball teams have earned #1 seeds in this week’s March Madness field.
Preseason #5 UCLA grabbed the overall top spot and is the #1 seed in Region 1 (Spokane). The other #1 seeds were South Carolina (Region 2 – Birmingham), Texas (Region 3 – Birmingham) and USC (Region 4 – Spokane).
Connecticut’s Huskies were the #2 preseason team. They are well coached, very talented, and possess a #2 seed in Region 4 this week.
At least for this opening weekend, which teams might spring an upset or two?
If you participate in this week’s CBS Sports March Madness contest, you will find my complete list (read ’em and weep) men and women’s selections listed as “SwampSwamiSports.com”.
Time to check out a few of my upset picks. Let’s start with the men’s tournament.
In the men’s South region, I like the #12 UC-San Diego Tritons to spear the #5 Michigan Wolverines and then take out #4 Texas A&M in the second round.
Moving to the East region, I’ll go with #10 seed Vanderbilt to beat #7 St. Mary’s in the opening round.
In the Midwest, I’ll take the winner of tonight’s #11 seed battle between Texas vs. Xavier to knock out the #6 seed Illinois. Also, I’ll select #10 Utah State to beat #7 seed UCLA in the opening round of the Midwest region.
Out West, I’m pulling for #11 Drake to surprise #6 seed Missouri in the opening round.
Let make a few Women’s March Madness upset predictions!
Starting in the women’s Region 1, I’ll take #11 George Mason to beat #6 Florida State in Round 1.
In Region 2, I’m selecting #9 seed Indiana to defeat #8 Utah (I know – not much of an upset in a first round game).
Moving to Region 3, I have the winner of First Four’s #11 seed game between Iowa State and Princeton beating #6 seed Michigan. I will also take #9 Creighton over #8 seed Illinois in the opening round.
In Region 4, I’ll go with #9 Mississippi State over #8 seed California in Round #1.
SwampSwami doesn’t see a path for a major underdog to make either of the Final Fours
Let’s face it. One or two teams usually get hot for the first weekend and ruin many of our brackets.
In the men’s field, #11 North Carolina obliterated San Diego State 95-68 on Tuesday night and might stay hot for the remainder of this week.
Don’t count on it, though. The Tar Heels went 1-12 vs. top level competition this year.
In the men’s and women’s tournaments, I don’t see a clear path for a significant underdog (seeded #9 or higher) to make it into the Sweet 16 round by winning two straight games this weekend.
Expect the cream of the crop to quickly rise in both tournaments. With this six game competition being played over three weekends, the pressure will increase each week.
The Final Four (both men and women) will be a great weekend for viewing college basketball!
What is the secret formula for victory?
I like teams with veteran coaches whose teams play with discipline.
Teams which feature outstanding point guards tend to do well in March Madness.
Don’t forget about free throw shooting!
If your favorite team has one or more players whose nickname at the free throw line is “The Brick Layer”, that player can expect to be fouled a lot during the tournament and forced to convert free throws with significant pressure.
I also like teams with balanced scoring.
Teams like Auburn and Duke on the men’s side depend heavily on one star player for their primary scoring when the game is on the line. It is extremely hard for one player to have six straight terrific performances under growing weekly pressure.
The men’s winner will be…
The #1 seed Houston Cougars!
This year’s men’s Final Four will be played in San Antonio, Texas.
I’ll take #1 seed Florida over #2 seed Michigan State in one semifinal game. Let’s go with #1 seed University of Houston over #1 Duke in a classic battle in the other semifinal.
This will set-up one of the nation’s top defensive units (Houston) against the high scoring Florida Gators. Will the Cougars and Coach Kelvin Sampson finally break through?
Houston 62, Florida 57
The women’s winner will be…
The #3 seed LSU Tigers!
The women’s Final Four will be played in Tampa, Florida.
In the semifinals, I have #3 LSU defeating #2 seed U Conn and #1 seed South Carolina roaring past #3 seed Notre Dame.
That will force yet another tense encounter between Kim Mulkey’s LSU Tigers and Dawn Staley’s defending champion South Carolina Gamecocks.
These two teams really don’t like each other, but LSU has lost 17 consecutive times to South Carolina.
It’s time for the Tigers to finally beat Carolina. The title game in Tampa would be the perfect place!
LSU 68, South Carolina 64
Will SwampSwami finally break through and pick a March Madness winner?
As the decades pass, the odds keep trending in my favor!
If not, I am hopeful that my new Acme “Super Duper AI Sports Prognosticator” device will still eligible for a full refund!
Beep beep!