Podcast: Play in new window | Download
Subscribe: RSS
After years of only four teams making the College Football Playoffs, there will be 12 teams in the field beginning this December.
How is this new playoff format going to work? It’s not as simple as you might have thought.
The information below comes directly from the College Football Playoffs website:
The 12 participating teams will be the five conference champions ranked highest by the CFP selection committee, plus the next seven highest-ranked teams.
The ranking of the teams will continue to be done by a selection committee.
The four highest-ranked conference champions will be seeded one through four and will receive a first-round bye.
The fifth conference champion will be seeded where it was ranked or at No. 12 if it is outside the top 12 rankings.
Non-conference champions ranked in the top four will be seeded beginning at No. 5. Because of this, the seeding, 1 through 12, could look different than the final rankings.
The eight teams seeded No. 5-12 will play in a first round with the higher seeds hosting the lower seeds either on campus or at other sites designated by the higher-seeded institution (No. 12 at No. 5, No. 11 at No. 6, No. 10 at No. 7 and No. 9 at No. 8.).
The selection committee will assign the four highest-ranked conference champions to Playoff Quarterfinals hosted by bowls. This will be done in consideration of historic bowl relationships, then in consideration of rankings.
For example, if the Sugar Bowl hosts a Playoff Quarterfinal and the SEC champion is ranked No. 1 and the Big 12 champion is ranked No. 3, the SEC champion would be assigned to the Sugar Bowl and the Big 12 champion would be assigned elsewhere.
With the four highest-ranked conference champions assigned to bowls, their four Playoff Quarterfinal opponents will be dictated by the bracket (i.e., No. 1 vs. No. 8/9 winner, No. 4 vs. No. 5/12 winner, No. 2 vs. 7/10 winner; No. 3 vs. 6/11 winner.)
The College Football Playoff bracket will follow the selection committee’s rankings, with no modifications made to avoid rematches between teams that may have played during the regular season or are from the same conference. The bracket will remain in effect throughout the playoff (i.e., no re-seeding).
The highest seed will receive preferential placement for the Playoff Semifinal bowl assignment.
Let’s compare the AP’s current playoff teams vs. the SwampSwami Top 25
It might be fun to take a look at the AP’s top teams vs. my SwampSwamiSports.com Top 25 rankings through last weekend.
Following the CFP’s formula for selecting and seeding teams, let’s see which of the AP’s Top 25 teams would make the playoff field:
Now, let’s compare the CFP teams utilizing the SwampSwampSports.com Top 25 rankings through Saturday, October 12, 2024:
The first thing which jumps out of the AP’s group of playoff teams is that the field is primarily comprised of “name brands” in college football. The folks at ESPN would be quite pleased with this grouping. Only Iowa State (currently the AP’s top-ranked Big 12 team) is an outlier.
The same can be said for #12 Boise State – the Group of Five’s lone entry in this group. Boise is actually ranked #15 by the AP this week. They are the highest rated team from the so-called Group of Five conferences and, by rule, must be part of the 12-team playoff field.
By contrast, the SwampSwamiSports.com 12-team playoff grouping featured seven different teams than the AP’s dozen. BYU, Pitt, Indiana, Army, Navy, Liberty, and Notre Dame are in my field as of this week.
Only Texas, Oregon, Miami (FL), Penn State, and Iowa State would be in both playoff fields.
Why are the two playoff fields so different?
The AP’s top 25 began in the 1930’s. It has 62 voters comprised of sports media personalities. Each person provides their own list of their top 25 teams from #1 to #25 each week.
The voter’s #1 team is assigned 25 points with a declining number of points all the way to team #25.
The AP compilation still showed 5-2 Ole Miss at #18 and 4-2 Michigan ranked #24 this week.
The SwampSwamiSports.com rankings give the most weight to the unbeaten teams followed by the best one-loss teams and so on. Within each group of teams, your “best win” receives a higher value if that win came on the road (vs at home). The next tiebreaker is the margin of victory in your best win.
That’s why I have teams like 6-0 teams like Brigham Young, Pitt, Indiana, and Army, 5-0 Navy, 4-0 Liberty, and 5-1 Notre Dame making my playoff field.
The TV folks would not be happy with my Playoff field!
There’s a reason why most people tend to purchase brand names at the grocery store. Though Kroger’s house brand of canned corn might taste just as good as a similar can being marketed by the Jolly Green Giant, most shoppers will spend a little more to purchase that brand name.
Who said that advertising doesn’t work?
That’s why the College Football Playoff selection committee will receive quite a bit of input from ESPN/Disney prior to releasing their final 12-team playoff selections.
For example, this week’s AP field would exclude current #12 ranked Notre Dame as one “Group of Five” team must make the playoff field.
We all know that Notre Dame is one of the top television draws every season. Who might be pushed out to make room for the Fighting Irish?
Let’s sprinkle a little bit of that “ESPN/Disney” magic dust to see who gets bumped
I would say that Tennessee is toast under this week’s playoff scenario. With the SEC’s Texas, Georgia, Alabama, and LSU already ahead of Tennessee, good ol’ Rocky Top might become this year’s Florida State and be left out of the playoff field in favor of Notre Dame.
If you like playoff mayhem as much as I do, how about this possibility?
What if BYU (Big 12), Pitt (ACC), Indiana (Big Ten), and Liberty (Conference USA) all win out? Would a few of the biggest “brand names” of college football be squeezed out of this new 12-team playoff field?
Nah.
The CFP committee will cave to the same TV pressures which kept 13-0 Florida State out of last season’s 4-team playoff field in favor of one-loss national brand Alabama.
I believe most college football fans would prefer to see ANY unbeaten team given a chance to prove their mettle in this newly expanded 12-team college football playoff field.
Unfortunately, TV ratings matter to the company which paid a fortune for the rights to cover this year’s playoff games.
Look for any of this year’s “underdog” teams to be bought-off with a lucrative consolation prize. If they don’t whine too loudly about being excluded from the playoff party, they will receive an invitation to play in one of the more prestigious (higher payday) post-season bowl games.
Let’s hope I’m wrong, but recent history is on my side.