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With this first full weekend of college football games kicking-off, the chase begins for 12 teams to receive invitations to play in the revised College Football Playoffs in December.
There are 134 teams in the Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS) upper tier division of college football this year. The Owls of Kennesaw State (just northwest of Atlanta, GA) will fly into Conference USA this season as the newest team venturing into the upper division of football schools.
It’s time to ring the bell and let the 134-team college football “Battle Royale” begin for a dozen playoff spots at the end of this season.
The expansion of the College Football Playoffs from four teams to twelve this season is the latest money grab by the NCAA, ABC/ESPN/Disney, the biggest programs in college football and, more recently, the football players, too.
The college football revenue pie has grown into an entire bakery filled with lots of “dough” (get it?).
Today, I read an article in which 15 ESPN sports staffers predicted the 12-team playoff field and the eventual national champion for this season.
To no one’s surprise, the majority predicted the winner would be Georgia (9 votes) followed by Ohio State (5 votes).
Just one of the writers ventured off the reservation and selected Oregon (now playing in the Big Ten, by the way) to win the college football title this season.
Statistically speaking, the odds favor the SEC
Being from the South, I have been a long-time supporter of SEC football teams. Most SEC fans will come together to pull for our representative in the championship game – unless both of the finalists are from the SEC. In the past decade, that occurred in 2022 (Georgia beat Alabama) and back in 2018 when, you guessed it, Alabama beat Georgia.
Prior to Michigan’s breakthrough win in last season’s title game, the SEC had been riding a four year winning streak in national championship title games. The league has captured six of the last ten national championships while the Big Ten (Michigan and Ohio State) and ACC (Clemson twice) have two trophies each.
Ironically, both of the Big Ten’s championships in the past decade have come while playing non-SEC opponents. This January’s victory by Michigan was against the Pac-12’s University of Washington. The January, 2015 win by Ohio State came against the Pac-12 Oregon Ducks.
Otherwise, SEC teams have played in the college football title game in eight of the past ten years. In six of those eight championship games, the SEC has taken home the big trophy.
This season, the Southeastern Conference has added two new behemoths to their league. Welcome to the University of Texas and the University of Oklahoma (which prefers the reverse for its shortened name – OU).
The SEC’s football dominance in recent years seems as large as former pro wrestler Andre the Giant (RIP) when compared to the rest of the field.
It is almost a cinch that the SEC will secure at least four spots in the inaugural 12-team College Football Playoffs this season.
Who gets into the new 12-team College Football Playoffs?
This is where it gets a little tricky.
- The champions of the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, and SEC are guaranteed a spot. That’s four teams with eight more to go!
- The highest ranked champion from one of the other five major conferences (American, Conference USA, Mid-American, Mountain West, and Sunbelt) is guaranteed a spot.
- The top seven highest ranked teams – to be determined by the College Football Playoff Selection Committee (wink, wink) – will round out the field.
In case you were curious, the 12-teams which would have made the field last season would have been:
- Michigan (Big Ten), Texas (Big 12), Alabama (SEC), and Florida State (ACC). Since 2023 was the final year of the Pac-12, Washington would have been guaranteed a spot last year, too.
- Liberty (a 13-0 team from Conference USA) was the top ranked team from the “Group of 5” conferences and earned a spot in the playoffs.
- The remaining top ranked playoff teams would have been Georgia (SEC), Ohio State (Big Ten), Oregon (Pac-12), Missouri (SEC), Penn State (Big Ten), and Ole Miss (SEC).
In 2023, a 12-team playoff would have featured four teams from the SEC, three from the Big Ten, two from the Pac-12, and one each from the ACC, Big 12, and Conference USA.
As we begin the 2024 fall college football season, the Pac-12 Conference has (for the most part) dissolved. As of August, 2024, ten of the 12 schools in the conference sold out for more money and headed east to join other leagues beginning this fall.
There are four “Pack-12” teams now a part of the Big Ten (Washington, Oregon, USC, and UCLA). Four more “Pack-12” teams migrated to the Big 12 (Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, and Utah). Two former “Pack-12” teams (Cal and Stanford) trek all the way to the East Coast to become part of the Atlantic Coast Conference. (Personally, I think this league should be rebranded as the “A&P Conference“).
Two Pac-12 teams (Oregon State and Washington State) were left out of the 2024 expan$ion game. The two remaining schools were allowed to keep the Pac-12 name as a consolation prize while they determine their football futures.
The favorites in 2024 will be the familiar BIG names
In addition to Georgia and Ohio State, the other favorites in this fall’s race to the championship include national brands such as Oregon, Texas, Alabama, Penn State, Notre Dame, Michigan, Clemson, and, of course, the 2019 national champions from LSU.
With the lone exception of the Penn State Nittany Lions, each of those teams has participated in at least one College Football Playoff game during the past decade.
If you are looking for an underdog team to root for in 2024, here are my top five to watch
Ole Miss – The SEC’s Rebels have never appeared in the College Football Playoffs. Coach Lane Kiffin often seems to get more press than his team does. Ole Miss has been on the verge of breaking through in the past three years, but Alabama kept getting in their way.
This year’s schedule features three Top 25 match-ups. Ole Miss plays a tough road game at LSU (October 12) along with home encounters against Oklahoma (October 26) and Georgia (November 9). Thankfully, long-time foil Alabama is not on this year’s SEC schedule.
A one or two loss season should be enough to lift Ole Miss into the College Football Playoffs for the first time in 2024.
Missouri – Just like Ole Miss, the Mizzou Tigers of the SEC are eager to compete in the College Football Playoffs for the first time, too. They have lost twice in the SEC Championship game (to Auburn and Alabama) and have yet to earn a ticket to the playoff party.
Missouri’s 2024 schedule seems quite favorable. The team will have three Top-25 match-ups. Two are road trips to Texas A&M (October 5) and Alabama (October 26). SEC newcomer Oklahoma will travel to Columbia, Missouri for a November 9 match-up with Mizzou.
A 10-2 regular season finish might be enough to punch Missouri’s first ticket to the post-season playoffs in 2024.
Tennessee – Over the past two seasons, the Tennessee Volunteers have found ways to get their fans excited early in the year but then let them down at the end. SEC bullies such as Georgia and Alabama have made a habit of bursting the playoff dreams of Tennessee’s loyal Big Orange supporters.
The Vols have three Top 25 teams on their 2024 schedule. One is a home game with Alabama (October 19) but a road game to Athens to play Georgia arrives on November 16. Another speed bump might occur during a September 21 road game at Oklahoma.
Though Rocky Top Nation hopes to enter this year’s new 12-team College Football Playoffs, they must find a way to finish at least 10-2 to earn their spot in the field.
Kansas – No, this is not a typo. Under the guidance of Coach Lance Leopold, the Jayhawks football team has improved from 2-10 in 2021, 6-7 in 2022, and then 9-4 last season.
The 2024 schedule appears quite favorable and may conclude with a rare Jayhawks championship football season.
The only Top 25 team on the Kansas schedule is a road game at arch-rival Kansas State on October 26. The Big 12 is without Oklahoma and Texas this season, so don’t be surprised if KU emerges as the league’s football champion in 2024.
James Madison – Which team has the best chance to emerge from the “Group of 5” conferences with a perfect record in 2024? Look no further than the James Madison University Dukes from Harrisonburg, Virginia. Entering just its third season of FBS competition, JMU has gone 8-3 and 11-2 as part of the Sunbelt Conference the past two years.
There are no Top 25 teams on the schedule for James Madison in 2024.
However, a couple of tough road trips at the University of North Carolina (September 21) and at league rival Appalachian State (November 23) might puncture the Dukes’ post-season plans.
James Madison must win impressively early this season to gain the attention of poll voters. JMU must then finish the year with no worse than an 11-1 record for a chance to secure a College Football Playoff invitation.
The college football season gets underway with a few games tonight (Thursday, August 29). On Saturday, more than 12 hours of football games will be televised for your viewing pleasure beginning at 11AM CDT.
On Sunday evening, LSU and USC take center stage with a nationally televised game in Las Vegas starting at 6:30PM on ABC.
The majority of college football teams will be eliminated from the playoff chase by Thanksgiving weekend
This year is shaping up like a gigantic professional wrestling “Battle Royale” match.
The 134 FBS contestants enter the ring this week. Each weekend, one or more the early season favorites may be upset and eventually tossed over the top ropes to end their playoff hopes.
The safest way for your favorite college football team to punch a playoff ticket in 2024 is to win the league’s championship. The judges (the College Football Playoff Selection Committee) proved to us last season that they will award the remaining playoff spot(s) to teams which are likely to generate the highest television ratings for ESPN.
Can I get an “Amen” from my Florida State Seminoles football fans?