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The most meaningless survey in college sports was just published this week. The Associated Press Preseason Top 25 rankings have been released.
To the surprise of zero college football fans, most of the predicted top teams for 2024 are, for the most part, the same ones from last year and the year before.
Want proof? I went back to find the AP Preseason Top 25 teams for 2023 and 2022 in addition to those on the new 2024 list.
In the past two seasons, a total of 19 teams (76%) appear in both the 2024 and 2023 AP Preseason Top 25. Averaged over the past two years, Georgia polled a perfect score (ranked #1) in both rankings. The other top 10 holdovers are Ohio State (ranked an average of 2.5), Alabama (4.5), Michigan (5.5), Texas (7.5), Penn State (7.5), Oregon (9), Florida State (9), and LSU (9).
Over the past three years, 12 of this year’s 25 top teams (48%) have appeared in each of the past three years of predictions.
What does this mean?
Not much.
The annual AP Top 25 Preseason rankings have become college football’s annual beauty contest. Especially as we continue down the new road of frequent transfers and pay-for-players, the annual prognostications should become more and more volatile (risky).
Instead of simply looking at the number of 5-star, 4-star and other freshman players coming on board each year, we now must consider the rapidly spinning revolving door of transfer-for-pay players coming into and leaving each program.
To acquire the top college football talent, a bidding war is underway and growing larger by the year. That should put the so-called “richest” athletic programs at the top of the heap.
The biggest “banks” in college football are easy to spot. A 2023 survey revealed the following schools with the largest sports revenues (all sports):
- Ohio State $280 Million
- Texas A&M $279 million
- Texas $271 million
- Michigan $229 million
- Georgia $210 million
- Nebraska $204 million
- Penn State $202 million
- Tennessee $202 million
- LSU $200 million
- Alabama $199 million
Other than #6 (“Nebraska National Bank”), the other nine biggest revenue schools are all ranked in this year’s AP Top 25 football teams!
What a surprise!
Unfortunately for Big Red Nation, Nebraska’s football program hasn’t fielded a winning team in seven straight years since 2016. The money machine in Lincoln has continued to crank out the cash, though.
Nebraska owns the nation’s longest college football home stadium sell-out streak. Since 1962, the Cornhuskers have sold out every home football game in their 85,000 seat Memorial Stadium. This year, Nebraska will surpass 400 consecutive sellouts as their 62-year streak continues.
With high expectations placed on the shoulders of major college coaches to win, several top names are feeling a lot of pressure today.
Here are 7 major college football coaches feeling the pressure right now:
Matt Rhule – Nebraska
Let’s start with Nebraska. Former Baylor head coach Matt Rhule is just in his second year. He joins former Nebraska quarterback Scott Frost (five years) and Oregon State’s Mike Riley (one year) as co-owners of the Huskers’ current seven year non-winning streak on the football field.
Playing in the Big Ten Conference, Nebraska looks to have a reasonable chance to end that losing streak this year. There are winnable home games against UTEP, Colorado, Northern Iowa, Illinois, and Rutgers. Road games against Purdue and Indiana might just get Nebraska to the magic seven win total.
The closing five games in 2024 will be difficult. The Huskers travel to Ohio State, host UCLA, play at USC, entertain Wisconsin at home, and end the regular season visiting Iowa.
I think Matt Rhule will break through with a 7-5 finish this year.
Billy Napier – Florida
Two years ago, getting a battlefield promotion from UL-Lafayette to the University of Florida seemed like a very big step. Billy Napier is a sharp coach, but he jumped right into the SEC fire by moving to Gainesville two seasons ago.
The new Gators coach posted a 6-6 record in his first year and then dropped to 5-7 last year in 2023.
The vultures are circling at Florida. Rival Florida State is coming off a 13-1 year and is ranked #10 in that 2024 AP preseason poll. Gator Nation is not happy that their team is nowhere to be found in this year’s top 25.
I still believe that Billy Napier is an excellent football coach, but he might want to keep his real estate agent on speed dial this season. Florida’s 2024 schedule is downright brutal.
Other than a home game with Samford (Birmingham, Alabama), the Gators’ home schedule features Miami (FL), Texas A&M, the University of Central Florida, Kentucky, Georgia, LSU, and Ole Miss. If you think that was rough, the road schedule for the Gators has games at Mississippi State, Tennessee, Texas, and Florida State.
In my humble opinion, a 6-6 record for the Gators this year may be worthy of “Coach of the Year” honors.
Pressure? You betcha! But the first person who should be fired at the University of Florida is the person who lined-up such a difficult slate of non-conference games. Chomp, chomp!
Dave Aranda – Baylor
The former LSU defensive coordinator was stellar during the Tiger’s 15-0 national championship run in 2019. Dave Aranda accepted the top job in Waco and immediately had a positive impact on Baylor’s fortunes.
During his second season at Baylor in 2021, Aranda’s team posted an impressive 12-2 record. The turnaround earned him the AP National Coach of the Year award.
Alas, daBears slumped to 6-7 in 2022 and then went into full hibernation last season with a woeful 3-9 record.
Like Florida, Baylor’s 2024 schedule is going to make for a difficult recovery this year.
After opening with Tarleton State, Baylor plays host to Air Force, BYU, Oklahoma State, TCU, and the rapidly improving Kansas Jayhawks. Baylor’s road games are at Utah, Colorado, Iowa State, Texas Tech, West Virginia, and Houston.
Coach Dave Aranda needs to win every close game this year. Otherwise, he may find himself looking for another defensive coordinator job next season in 2025.
Ryan Day – Ohio State
To me, Ryan Day has morphed into the Les Miles of the Big Ten.
As you might remember, LSU’s former coach Les Miles often gave the appearance of being confused while on the sidelines.
In some games, Coach Miles’ Tigers rallied late for victory. At other times, the LSU coach Miles looked lost and was out-coached as the Tigers failed to adjust several games when the team had been favored.
Though Ohio State is always highly rated before the season begins, Coach Ryan Day’s teams have continued to disappoint their very spoiled fan base. The coaching staff has done a good job at restocking its football talent annually.
The Buckeyes fans are not happy when Coach Day’s teams tease greatness early in the year but falter at the end.
Despite posting double-digit win totals every year, Coach Ryan Day has zero national championships to show for his first five seasons at Columbus. A very hot-hot-hot seat!
Sam Pittman – Arkansas
The likeable long-time assistant coach finally received his first head coaching gig five years ago after being named the head coach for the Razorbacks. Coach Pittman lifted Arkansas to a 9-3 record in his second season in Fayetteville. The Hogs then dropped to 7-6 in 2022 and posted a disappointing 4-8 record last season.
The 62-year old Sam Pittman will face another tough schedule in 2024. The Razorbacks open at home against UA-Pine Bluff but then face UAB, Texas A&M, LSU, Ole Miss, Tennessee, Texas and Louisiana Tech. The Hogs will play four road games at Oklahoma State, Auburn, Mississippi State, and Missouri.
Anything less than a 7-5 campaign by Arkansas in 2024 will likely find Coach Sam Pittman in the unemployment line by early December.
Mario Cristobal – Miami (FL)
Just two years ago, the highly touted Mario Cristobal was coaching at the University of Oregon and rumored as the most likely successor to Nick Saban at Alabama.
When Saban stayed put, Cristobal left Oregon to take over a declining program at the University of Miami. Since being hired two years ago, his Hurricanes have struggled and are just 12-13 during his stay in Miami.
Mario Cristobal’s bubble popped. So much for that Bama job!
You might not realize that the school known as “The U” has a history of short tenured head football coaches.
Going back 54 years to 1970, only Dennis Erickson, Butch Davis, and Larry Coker reached six years as Miami’s head coach. The last two football coaches (Manny Diaz and Mark Richt) were sent packing in just three seasons by the very impatient Miami Hurricane fan base.
In 2024, Miami has a schedule featuring cream puffs like Florida A&M and Ball State plus relatively soft opponents like South Florida, Georgia Tech and Syracuse on their schedule. A 7-5 record (or better) should be quite achievable. The AP ranked Miami as a preseason #19.
Preseason hype aside, “The U” may stand for “The Unemployment office” for Coach Mario Cristobal if the Canes post a losing record in 2024.
*Note to the University of Florida – hire the person who schedules football games for Miami!
Sonny Cumbie – Louisiana Tech
After the Bulldogs rolled-off six straight winning seasons from 2014 through 2019, Louisiana Tech’s football fortunes have slipped dramatically into the (wait for it…) doghouse.
Skip Holtz (the previous football coach with that successful record) was fired after a 3-9 season in 2021. Louisiana Tech hired former Texas Tech offensive coordinator Sonny Cumbie to replace Holtz.
Unfortunately, the new coach in Ruston has posted two more 3-9 seasons. Coach Sonny Cumbie won’t survive a third year without showing significant improvement this season.
Other than two “money” road games at North Carolina State and Arkansas this year, the remaining 2024 schedule for the Bulldogs appears to give the team a reasonable chance for a turnaround.
If Louisiana Tech’s football team flounders again this fall, fans in north Louisiana may consider adding an “r” after the “C” in the coach’s last name to describe how they feel about his performance.
Yes, “Crumbie”!
Honorable Mention:
Deion Sanders – University of Colorado
One year ago, the nation was mesmerized by the former NFL football player-turned-coach. Coach Prime‘s Colorado Buffaloes raced out of the chute to a sparkling 3-0 start in 2023.
Unfortunately, CU lost eight of its final nine to complete a disappointing 4-8 season.
Colorado moves into the Big 12 Conference in 2024. However, this year’s schedule appears to be every bit as tough as last season when the Buffs competed in the final year of the Pac-12 Conference.
The glow of Colorado’s 2023 football season was filled with sell-out crowds and a national spotlight on the school. That should be enough to keep Coach Deion Sanders employed for this season.
If the Colorado Buffaloes flounder once again in 2024, Coach Prime’s time in Boulder may come to an end before December 31.