Podcast: Play in new window | Download
Subscribe: RSS
The way the media is spinning it, Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson is being railroaded out of the league right now.
They are saying that Jackson is being taken advantage of. Lamar Jackson deserves our collective pity as 31 other NFL teams conspire to keep him from getting the type of long-term contract which the media thinks he deserves.
If he plays this season for those evil Baltimore Ravens, they will be required to pay him a measly $32.4 million for one year.
Poor Lamar Jackson.
The 2019 NFL MVP led the Ravens to a 13-win season while passing for 3,100 yards and 36 touchdowns. He ran for another 1,200 yards and added seven more scores. Alas, Baltimore lost in the first round of the playoffs that season, too.
Lamar Jackson’s personal stats while playing under his rookie contract in Baltimore have been nothing short of phenomenal. Whether passing or running the football, Lamar Jackson has personally accounted for the majority of Baltimore’s offense during his five seasons.
Selected by the Baltimore Ravens with the final first round pick in the 2018 NFL draft, former Louisville Cardinals quarterback Lamar Jackson signed a rookie contract which has paid him nearly $32 million over five seasons.
Inflation in the pay scale for top-level veteran NFL quarterbacks in recent years has been rising much faster than at your local grocery store lately.
Lamar Jackson was the 32nd and final selection in the first round of the 2018 NFL draft. Four other quarterbacks were selected in the first round ahead of him.
Let’s see how they have fared.
The NFL’s 2018 #1 overall draft pick was Baker Mayfield by the Cleveland Browns. After a four year roller coaster ride in Cleveland, Baker Mayfield was traded in 2022 to Carolina. Halfway through his first season in Charlotte, he was waived by the lowly Panthers. The Los Angeles Rams claimed Baker Mayfield off waivers to fill-in for injured quarterback Mathew Stafford to finish out the season.
That didn’t work out for him, either. Baker Mayfield recently signed a one year deal worth $4 million to play football in Tampa Bay this fall. That makes four teams in just five NFL seasons.
The second quarterback selected in the 2018 NFL draft was Sam Darnold. The “can’t miss” prospect from USC has been anything but successful in the NFL during his first five years.
The #3 overall pick by the New York Jets in 2018, Sam Darnold started 38 games during his first three years with the J-E-T-S. The team went 13-25.
Darnold was traded prior to his fourth NFL season to Carolina in 2021. He has fared poorly there, too. The Panthers went 8-9 in games where Darnold was the starting quarterback. He sat on the bench for much of last season watching none other than Baker Mayfield play.
After grabbing a $20 million signing bonus, Sam Darnold’s annual salary averaged about $2.5 million for his rookie 4-year NFL contract. The Panthers exercised Darnold’s 5th year option on his rookie contract and paid him nearly $19 million last season.
Just like Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold didn’t snare a lucrative long-term contract offer after his rookie deal expired. He recently signed a one-year $4.5 million contract with the San Francisco 49ers.
That makes two quarterback duds in the first three picks of the 2018 NFL draft. (Note – remember this in a few weeks as you watch April’s 2023 draft with risky quarterbacks being taken early, too).
The third quarterback selected in 2018 was Josh Allen by the Buffalo Bills. Picked seventh in the first round, Allen suffered through a shaky rookie season in Buffalo. However, his stats have been improving every season. Buffalo has become a playoff team in the last four years and a legitimate Super Bowl contender.
Not wanting to lose him to free agency, Buffalo extended Josh Allen’s four-year NFL rookie contract. Beginning last season in 2022, Allen’s incredible new 6-year deal was worth an estimated $250 million. It pays him an average of $43 million per season. Josh Allen’s contract also carried an estimated $150 million guarantee – no matter how he performs on the field.
The fourth quarterback taken in the first round in 2018 was the #10 overall pick, Josh Rosen. Selected by the Arizona Cardinals, Rosen started 13 games in his rookie year in 2018. He tossed 14 interceptions and only had 11 touchdown passes as the Cardinals went 3-10 with Rosen as the starting quarterback.
After his rookie year in Arizona, Josh Rosen has played for an incredible six more teams in the following four seasons. He has picked up travel bag stickers in Miami, Tampa Bay, San Francisco, Atlanta, Cleveland, and Minnesota. During those four years, Josh Rosen has appeared in only ten NFL games (starting just three of them).
As of this post, Minnesota had released Josh Rosen. He is searching for another team to play for.
In retrospect, Baltimore’s selection of Lamar Jackson with the 32nd and final pick in the first round of the 2018 NFL draft has made Ravens team management look very smart. Jackson’s stats have been stellar (when he has been on the field, that is). The Baltimore Ravens have made the AFC playoffs in four out of five of during Lamar Jackson’s time as the team’s starting quarterback.
When compared to three of the other four quarterbacks selected ahead of him in the 2018 NFL draft, Lamar Jackson has been terrific. Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, and Josh Rosen have struggled and are hanging by a thread after just five years in the league.
Unlike Buffalo’s Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson refused to sign a long-term contract extension which had been offered by the Baltimore Ravens prior to the start of the 2022 NFL season.
Reports surfaced that Baltimore offered Lamar Jackson a 5-year $250 million contract offer. It came with a guarantee of $133 million and would have paid him about $50 million per year.
Jackson passed on the long-term contract offer made by the Ravens. He wanted all of the money guaranteed. He apparently believed that another NFL team would be willing to meet his demands if he simply waited until after the 2022 regular season ended.
Thus far, he has been hearing nothing but crickets.
Unfortunately, Lamar Jackson has been injured for much of the past two seasons and has only started about half of the Baltimore Ravens games during that period.
Who wants to guarantee 100% of the contract money being paid to a quarterback who runs with the football often and gets hurt nearly every season?
Thus far, nobody.
Most of the NFL’s non-playoff teams could use a quarterback with Lamar Jackson’s skills. Some of those teams are planning to select a talented college quarterback in the NFL draft in April. The New Orleans Saints signed former Raiders quarterback Derek Carr to a new four-year deal worth $150 million. Former San Francisco starter Jimmy Garoppolo is headed to Las Vegas to fill Carr’s vacancy with a 3-year deal worth about $25 million per season.
In addition to questions about Lamar Jackson’s long-term health, his potential market value has plummeted after several other highly paid NFL quarterbacks laid a big egg in 2022.
Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers, Denver’s Russell Wilson, and Arizona’s Kyler Murray (all paid in the ballpark of $50 million/year) failed to lead their teams into the playoffs. It’s quite possible that the excessive costs of some quarterbacks’ contracts (about 25% of each team’s 53-man payroll) may be causing some locker-room dissension.
Perhaps NFL teams are now beginning to realize that quarterbacks are not worth the recent record prices which a few have been paid.
Lamar Jackson is a good NFL passer, but he is not a great one. His elusiveness and running abilities have made him a very effective offensive weapon. However, he must have two healthy legs to be most effective.
Lamar Jackson suffered a knee injury in 2022. Any potential suitor will think very hard prior to writing a big check and handing Jackson a significant fully guaranteed long-term contract.
Look no further than former Heisman Trophy winner and NFL MVP Cam Newton.
Like Lamar Jackson, Newton’s scrambling ability and rushing made his passing more effective. He led the Carolina Panthers to a Super Bowl appearance in 2015 as the Panthers lost to the Denver Broncos in Payton Manning’s final NFL game.
Injuries started to pile-up on the 6’6” 240 pound Cam Newton in following years. Now age 33, Cam Newton is out of the NFL today. He participated this week at Auburn’s “Pro Day” in an effort to make the roster of any NFL team.
Lamar Jackson is a big guy like Cam Newton. At 6’2” and 230 pounds, he can be difficult to bring down when he runs the ball. That also means that NFL defensive players must hit him harder, too.
Though he just turned 26 in January, Lamar Jackson’s bad timing in his contract negotiations and injuries may have backfired on him. His ego has likely been bruised quite a bit, too.
The Baltimore Ravens have recently placed a non-exclusive franchise tag on Lamar Jackson. That means that he is free to sign with any other NFL team as long as the other team compensates Baltimore with its 2023 and 2024 first round draft picks. Theoretically, Baltimore could utilize one or both of those draft picks to find another quarterback to replace Jackson.
In return, Baltimore is now required to provide Lamar Jackson with a one-year $32.4 million offer if he does not sign with another NFL team beginning in 2023.
No matter what you may hear the media say, Lamar Jackson will have a $32.4 million landing spot to play professional football next season. He is still free to negotiate a new long-term deal in Baltimore or wait until after next season to cut a new long-term deal next winter.
I expect Lamar Jackson will come to his senses soon and sign a very competitive long-term contract with Baltimore or another NFL team very soon.
Cam Newton, Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, and Josh Rosen would love to be in his position.
Me, too!