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As we enter the week before Christmas, the NFL playoffs loom beginning in January. A few teams have been outright eliminated from playoff contention, and others will soon be sent home on vacation.
Rather than dwell on the negative, let’s take a closer look at the NFL teams which have a chance to make a run into the Super Bowl this year.
Other than the surprising Philadelphia Eagles of the NFC, the league has no obviously dominant team. Even the Eagles’ weakness (being forced to rely on the passing of Jalen Hurts) has been exposed on a few occasions. The problem for other teams is that Jalen Hurts’ ability to take off and run the football is more deadly than his passing.
The rest of the NFC is a jumbled mess.
The Minnesota Vikings just secured a playoff spot by coming back from a 33-0 halftime deficit (at home) to beat the sad sack Indianapolis Colts on Saturday in a 39-36 overtime thriller (unless you are a Colts fan, that is). Despite the Vikings’ stellar 11-3 record, the team has scored 351 points and given up 349 (+2 for the season). That indicates that the Vikings are playing on wafer thin ice, and this team could fall in at any time.
The AFC is as wide open as I can remember in many years.
Remember the 2006 Pittsburgh Steelers?
They rode “The Bus” (veteran running back Jerome Bettis) from a #6-seed, won three straight road games and, eventually, took home another Super Bowl trophy to the Steel City.
Will the AFC produce a “Road Warrior” champion again during this year’s playoffs?
The Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs appear to be the best teams in the AFC. However, neither team is a dominant force. Their weaknesses have been exposed. Buffalo’s running game is nearly non-existent. Kansas City’s running game isn’t good either, and the Chiefs’ defense has been iffy (ranked #15).
If either AFC leader’s quarterback (Josh Allen in Buffalo or Patrick Mahomes in KC) should suffer a serious injury, they are toast.
Let’s examine the contenders for the NFL title weeks ahead of the actual playoffs and see if we can spot any trends.
NFC:
Philadelphia – Unless they implode in the final few games (very unlikely), they deserve the #1 NFC seed and should have home field advantage for the playoffs. This team is built on balance, but they just don’t seem to have a killer instinct. This team is beatable.
San Francisco – The 49ers have endured having their #1 and #2 quarterbacks go down. The loss of Trey Lance and Jimmy Garoppolo has been tough, but this team keeps on winning. Frisco’s defense is #1 in the NFL. All they need is for the 49ers offense to score more than 20 points on most weeks to win. San Francisco will be a tough out in the playoffs.
Dallas – As much as I have a personal bias against the Cowboys (going back to when they declared themselves to be “America’s Team” in the 1980’s), the Cowboys have enough talent on both sides of the ball to get hot during the playoffs. With a 26-year absence from the Super Bowl, the sports media will keep beating the Cowboys’ drum hoping this team makes a deep playoff run. Dallas must find a way to win in Philly in order to return to the Super Bowl once again. We know that Fox Sports would be absolutely DELIGHTED to see Dallas get there!
Minnesota – As noted earlier, the Vikings’ record is impressive, but the statistics show a team which struggles on occasion. The offensive talent is plentiful. However, quarterback Kurt Cousins must finally prove that he can win in the playoffs when the pressure is on. Minnesota is a dangerous team capable of scoring points in bunches. They are equally capable of laying an egg and going down in the opening round, too.
The rest:
Tampa Bay – This team features a 45-year old quarterback (Tom Brady) and a solid defense (ranked #8 in the NFL). The Bucs’ lack of a consistent running game has made them quite one dimensional. Though they are the most likely team to make the playoffs from the pitiful NFC South, they are unlikely to win more than one game in this year’s playoffs.
New York Giants – Trailing both Philadelphia and Dallas in the NFC East, the Giants have no business getting into the playoffs. They are 23rd in the 32-team NFL in offense and 26th in defense. If the Giants make it into the playoffs as a wild-card team, they’re one and done.
Washington Commandos (yes, I know) – The Washington Football Team features the league’s fourth best defense. If perennial fan-favorite back-up quarterback Taylor Heinicke stays hot, Washington has a chance to win at least one game in the playoffs.
Seattle Seahawks – Though this team could sneak into the playoffs, the second half of the season has revealed what we already suspected before the year. Seattle just isn’t a very good team. If they make the playoffs, expect a one-and-done first round casualty.
Detroit Lions – This is truly America’s Team (2022 version). The Lions have never appeared in a Super Bowl and would be the hungriest of all teams in the playoffs. Detroit’s offense is, at times, nearly unstoppable (#4 in the NFL). Their defense, though, is dead last at #32. If defense wins championships, Detroit will have a short playoff run.
NFC Summary – I think it comes down to Philly, San Francisco, and Dallas. I have absolutely no clue. Perhaps I should toss a coin.
AFC:
Buffalo – The Bills secured a playoff spot on Saturday night after as their fans tossed snowballs following a home field win over the Miami Dolphins. If the Bills secure the AFC’s home field playoff advantage, the weather in Buffalo becomes a huge factor. However, the Bills’ previously mentioned lack of a consistent running game may be their downfall. Relying on passing in frigid weather conditions could spell doom for the Bills and their long-suffering fans – again.
Kansas City – As Patrick Mahomes goes, so will the Chiefs. This team was surprised by Cincinnati and ousted from the playoffs last year. The NFL’s top-ranked offense rolls-up over 420 yards per game. The Chiefs ability to score points in bunches makes them a dangerous team in the playoffs. However, the team’s defense (15th) surrenders plenty of points, too.
Cincinnati – The Bengals and Baltimore Ravens will both likely advance into the playoffs from the AFC North. With confident quarterback Joe Burrow at the helm, the Bengals surprised everyone last season and made it into the Super Bowl (losing to the LA Rams in a close game). This year, the other teams know what is coming. The Bengals’ offense is top notch (#5 overall), and the defense (ranked #14) continues to improve. Like San Francisco in the NFC, the Bengals are a dangerous team in the playoffs.
The rest:
Baltimore – A team built for bad weather games, the Ravens feature the NFL’s 2nd leading rushing team (165 yards per game). The team’s star quarterback, Lamar Jackson, has been injured for several games. As Action Jackson goes, so do the Ravens. If he is still hobbled entering the playoffs, this team will be fortunate to win one game.
Tennessee – Like Tampa Bay in the NFC South, the Tennessee Titans will be the default winner of a very lousy AFC South division. Though the team’s coach (Mike Vrabel) is an excellent strategist in playoff games, the Titans just do not have enough talent on offense or defense to win more than one game in the playoffs.
LA Chargers – A fashionable pick to be a playoff troublemaker in the AFC, the Chargers’ offense depends on the impressive passing of quarterback Justin Herbert. The problem for the Chargers will be taking their air-raid passing attack into a few cold weather cities in January as a road underdog. Are they capable of one or more upsets? Perhaps, but it is not likely.
Miami Dolphins – The Fins can be a very good team – at times. Like the Chargers, they are capable of scoring in bunches. Unlike the Chargers, they are inconsistent on offense at times. I don’t see this team making it very far – assuming they even qualify for the playoffs at all.
New England Patriots – IF New England should make it into the playoffs, they will need to play in a low-scoring game to have any chance to win. Good luck with that game plan if the Patriots were to visit Kansas City in January!
New York Jets – The Jets are hanging on by a thread. If they find a way to squeeze into the playoffs, it will be “one-and-done” for the J-E-T-S!
AFC Summary – The AFC Championship game will likely be held in either Buffalo or Kansas City. Any opponent reaching the AFC finals has a good chance to steal this game.
Early Super Bowl Prediction – Though Philadelphia is the prohibitive NFC favorite, I could see the Eagles slipping on a proverbial banana peel at some point during the playoffs. Another predictor of post-season success will be each team’s overall health. Historically, the teams which have the fewest key injuries entering the playoffs have the best statistical chance to win it all.
A Super Bowl match-up pitting the league’s top offense (Kansas City) versus the NFL’s top defense (San Francisco) would make for a very interesting game and great television ratings, too!