Tonight, the NBA’s annual player draft will be held in the city which boasts two of the worst teams in the league, New York City. Home of basketball’s woeful Brooklyn Nets and putrid New York Knicks, America’s largest city shares the hopes of several other NBA cities that their teams will improve next season by making one the early picks during the first round of the draft.
In general, the worse your team’s record, the earlier you get to choose a new player in the next draft. These teams hold hopes that one of these valuable early picks will blossom into the next LeBron James, Stephen Curry, or Tim Duncan.
Some franchises have gone all-in on the idea of “tanking” for one or more seasons to draft one of the best players in the following year’s NBA draft. By purposefully finishing at or near the bottom of the standings in one or more seasons, they promise their ticket-paying fans that the franchise can quickly rebuild a championship-caliber (or, at the least, competitive) team by adding these so-called “can’t-miss” early draft picks.
For example, the Philadelphia 76ers, after making a deal this week with Boston, will select the first player in tonight’s draft. Philly has acknowledged that they have employing a purposeful tanking policy for the past four years and begged their fans to remain patient while this rebuild is underway.
The Sixers have certainly delivered on their promise to lose basketball games in record numbers. In the past four seasons, Philadelphia has finished 14th, 14th, 15th, and 14th again this season in the 15-team NBA Eastern Conference. With those early picks in the following drafts, the 76ers have added Joel Embiid (Kansas), Jahlil Okafor (Duke), Ben Simmons (LSU), and tonight’s #1 overall choice (likely to be Markelle Fultz of the University of Washington).
The ever-loyal and boisterous Philly fans are, for now, buying into the hope/hype as season ticket sales for the coming year have spiked even before their new version of the Fantastic Four laces up their sneakers for next season.
But, does this strategy actually work? Let’s take a look at the last four NBA champions and see how they did it:
- Golden State Warriors (2017 and 2015 champs) – Finished 13th in NBA West in 2011 and emerged as champions in 2015. Though Golden State improved itself through the draft, they never picked higher than #11 during this period (Klay Thompson) while another starter (Draymond Green) was picked in the second round. No tanks!
- Cleveland Cavaliers (2016 champs) – After LeBron James departed to take his talents to Miami in 2010, the Cavs finished 15th in the NBA Eastern Conference in 2011, and 13th in both 2012 and 2013. In the 2011 draft, they truly scored big with the #1 overall pick, Kyrie Irving from Duke, and #4 overall, Tristan Thompson from Texas. Their subsequent early picks of Dion Waiters (Syracuse) and Anthony Bennett (UNLV) were, for the most part, busts. Overall, Cleveland may have benefited from “tanking”, at least judging by the success of their 2011 NBA draft picks.
- San Antonio Spurs – (2014, 2007, 2005, 2003, and 1999 champs) – OK, you could say that 1997 Spurs, who finished 13th in the NBA West, “tanked” to grab a first round legend, Tim Duncan, in the 1997 draft. But only one bad year in the past 20 seasons shouldn’t qualify as a “tanking” strategy.
- Miami Heat (2013 and 2012 champions) – No tanking here. Miami bought their two recent championships by adding established NBA stars Chris Bosh (from Toronto) and LeBron James (Cleveland) to their existing team led by 2003 draft pick, Dwayne Wade.
In summary, only time will tell if Philadelphia’s “tanking” strategy will result in success. A more reliable winning formula seems to be having solid ownership, management, and coaching in place to draft and develop players to fit into the team’s system. Basketball remains very much a team sport. Having a team filled with all of the huge egos of #1 draft picks doesn’t often equate to successful team play and championships.